House tests
We publish our failures
Strategies we tested ourselves on real exchange candles. Failures stay on the board — a backtesting tool that only shows winners is a marketing tool.
| Strategy | Tested window | Trades | Win rate | PF | Return / buy & hold | Max DD | Verdict | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sweep → market-structure shift → fair value gap TJR Trades · BTCUSDT · 5M | 2024-12-14 → 2026-08-31 · 1.7 year | 142 | 29.6% | 0.15 | -18.9% / hold -23.6% | 21.2% | Failed | Report |
ICT Silver Bullet (New York windows 03–04 · 10–11 · 14–15) Michael J. Huddleston (Inner Circle Trader) · BTCUSDT · 5M | 2024-12-14 → 2026-08-31 · 1.7 year | 126 | 27.8% | 0.32 | -18.5% / hold -23.6% | 18.5% | Failed | Report |
50 EMA pullback with engulfing entry Steven Hart (The Trading Channel) · BTCUSDT · 4H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 184 | 51.6% | 0.99 | -1.5% / hold +980.1% | 15.1% | Failed | Report |
Moving-average pullback Rayner Teo · BTCUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 107 | 38.3% | 4.54 | +59.1% / hold +963.8% | 5.5% | Failed | Report |
Four-Week Rule Richard Donchian · SOLUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 23 | 43.5% | 11.33 | +12127.8% / hold +2984.7% | 66.0% | Failed | Report |
Four-Week Rule Richard Donchian · BNBUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 27 | 51.9% | 20.41 | +15882.5% / hold +5923.2% | 27.8% | Passed | Report |
Four-Week Rule Richard Donchian · ETHUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 29 | 51.7% | 4.44 | +1749.5% / hold +718.1% | 51.8% | Passed | Report |
Four-Week Rule Richard Donchian · BTCUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 30 | 53.3% | 4.34 | +1551.3% / hold +963.8% | 33.8% | Passed | Report |
Double 7s Larry Connors · ETHUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 72 | 62.5% | 1.26 | +24.7% / hold +718.1% | 54.8% | Passed | Report |
Double 7s Larry Connors · BTCUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 77 | 70.1% | 1.92 | +159.6% / hold +963.8% | 33.5% | Passed | Report |
RSI(2) mean reversion Larry Connors · SOLUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 17 | 70.6% | 1.49 | +16.2% / hold +2984.7% | 13.9% | Passed | Report |
RSI(2) mean reversion Larry Connors · BNBUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 28 | 57.1% | 2.91 | +62.5% / hold +5923.2% | 12.9% | Passed | Report |
RSI(2) mean reversion Larry Connors · ETHUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 29 | 69.0% | 2.85 | +58.9% / hold +718.1% | 9.5% | Passed | Report |
RSI(2) mean reversion Larry Connors · BTCUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 30 | 73.3% | 2.07 | +42.1% / hold +963.8% | 20.4% | Passed | Report |
Holy Grail (ADX + 20 EMA pullback) Linda Bradford Raschke & Laurence Connors · BNBUSDT · 1H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 40 | 35.0% | 0.89 | -0.8% / hold +6008.4% | 7.0% | Failed | Report |
Holy Grail (ADX + 20 EMA pullback) Linda Bradford Raschke & Laurence Connors · ETHUSDT · 1H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 40 | 32.5% | 0.84 | -2.8% / hold +723.8% | 6.8% | Failed | Report |
Holy Grail (ADX + 20 EMA pullback) Linda Bradford Raschke & Laurence Connors · BTCUSDT · 4H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 10 | 40.0% | 1.23 | +1.4% / hold +980.1% | 2.0% | Failed | Report |
Turtle Trading — System 1 (long side) Richard Dennis / Original Turtles (Free Rules Project) · BNBUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 44 | 38.6% | 5.24 | +114.4% / hold +5923.2% | 4.3% | Failed | Report |
Turtle Trading — System 1 (long side) Richard Dennis / Original Turtles (Free Rules Project) · ETHUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 44 | 47.7% | 3.54 | +59.0% / hold +718.1% | 4.6% | Failed | Report |
Turtle Trading — System 1 (long side) Richard Dennis / Original Turtles (Free Rules Project) · BTCUSDT · 1D | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 41 | 43.9% | 6.34 | +132.8% / hold +963.8% | 5.8% | Failed | Report |
Tori Trades Trendline Strategy Tori Trades · ADAUSDT · 4H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 30 | 43.3% | 1.42 | +8.7% / hold +82.1% | 5.9% | Failed | Report |
Tori Trades Trendline Strategy Tori Trades · XRPUSDT · 4H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 34 | 55.9% | 2.11 | +24.4% / hold +294.7% | 3.2% | Passed | Report |
Tori Trades Trendline Strategy Tori Trades · SOLUSDT · 4H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 14 | 50.0% | 1.64 | +6.8% / hold +3381.7% | 2.3% | Failed | Report |
Tori Trades Trendline Strategy Tori Trades · BNBUSDT · 4H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 15 | 33.3% | 0.91 | +0.2% / hold +5914.8% | 5.0% | Failed | Report |
Tori Trades Trendline Strategy Tori Trades · ETHUSDT · 4H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 15 | 40.0% | 1.18 | +3.1% / hold +715.0% | 2.4% | Failed | Report |
Tori Trades Trendline Strategy Tori Trades · BTCUSDT · 4H | 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 years | 16 | 37.5% | 1.09 | +1.7% / hold +980.1% | 4.7% | Failed | Report |