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Richard Donchian

Four-Week Rule

RECOMMENDED 1D

Win rate

51.7%

Trades

29

Profit factor

1.78

profit > loss

Return

+1898.9%

beat hold +954.4%

Drawdown

51.8%

Account curve

ETHUSDT · 1D2018-09-21 → 2026-09-19 · 8.0 years

StrategyBuy & hold

Wins and losses

52%win rate
  • Wins15
  • Losses14
Drawdown52%
Hold drawdown74%
Time in market56%

How it trades

  1. 1

    Timeframe

    1D

  2. 2

    Setup / filter

    no separate filter, the entry rule is the whole setup

  3. 3

    Entry

    close breaks above the 20-candle range → market at the next candle open

  4. 4

    Stop

    NONE — no stop-loss rule was provided, so no stop is placed

  5. 5

    Target / exit

    Target: no fixed target · Rule exit: a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open

  6. 6

    Risk

    1% of equity as trade notional (there is no stop, so this is not risk to a stop)

Evidence

3
Rules executed
2
Published sources
3
Known limits
marketcalls.inlearn-forextrading.org

What this test cannot reproduce

The original rule reverses to short on the downside break; Spot cannot short, so the downside break is used as a flat exit only.

Four weeks is taken as 20 candles, which on a 24/7 crypto market is 20 days rather than 20 trading days.

No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.

Every backtest of these rules