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Richard DonchianPromising 1D

Four-Week Rule

51.5%Win rate
33Trades
1.96Profit factor
+2512.1%Return · hold +1314.8%
33.8%Drawdown

Account curve

BTCUSDT · 1D · 9.0 years
+2512.1%33 trades · beat holding by 1197.3 pts
StrategyBuy & hold

Verdict

51.5%win rate
Promising
Win rate 50% or above (passed)51.5%
Ended in profit (passed)+2512.1%
More than 50 trades (not passed)33

Wins and losses

17of 33 won
Wins 17Losses 16
Drawdown34%
Hold drawdown81%
Time in market60%

Rules

Timeframe1D
1D
Setup / filterno separate filter, the entry rule is the whole setup
no separate filter, the entry rule is the whole setup
Entryclose breaks above the 20-candle range → market at the next candle open
close breaks above the 20-candle range → market at the next candle open
StopNONE — no stop-loss rule was provided, so no stop is placed
NONE — no stop-loss rule was provided, so no stop is placed
Target / exitTarget: no fixed target · Rule exit: a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open
Target: no fixed target · Rule exit: a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open
Risk1% of equity as trade notional (there is no stop, so this is not risk to a stop)
1% of equity as trade notional (there is no stop, so this is not risk to a stop)

Differences from the video

3
Shown on every result

The original rule reverses to short on the downside break; Spot cannot short, so the downside break is used as a flat exit only.

Four weeks is taken as 20 candles, which on a 24/7 crypto market is 20 days rather than 20 trading days.

No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.

Rules executed3
Published sources2

Sources

marketcalls.inlearn-forextrading.org

Every backtest of these rules