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Free viewBacktest the Donchian Four-Week Rule on ETHUSDT
On the daily chart of Ethereum it buys when close breaks above the 20-candle range. No stop loss, a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open.
4 notes about this test
- The original rule reverses to short on the downside break; Spot cannot short, so the downside break is used as a flat exit only.
- Four weeks is taken as 20 candles, which on a 24/7 crypto market is 20 days rather than 20 trading days.
- No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.
- 31 trades: the most these rules produce in 9 years of 1d candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 4 markets108 trades · 50.0% win · — avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT | 31 | 51.6% | — |
| BTCUSDT | 29 | 55.2% | — |
| SOLUSDT | 22 | 40.9% | — |
| BNBUSDT | 26 | 50.0% | — |
| All · 1d | 108 | 50.0% | — |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 1996-10-17 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2017-10-16 (warm-up 60 bars)
Verdict
PROMISINGwin rate · 31 trades
- Ended above the starting budget+2360.7% · 10.885%
- Win rate 50% or above51.6%
- More than 50 trades31 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 31
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 3289 days
- Time in market
- 54.7%
high win rate · 31 trades, limited sample
What to watch
- Deep drawdown · 51.8%, past the 40% we look for
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Beat buy & hold
+2360.7% vs +616.9%
same symbol, same window · 31 closed trades
Months in profit
52% of months closed up
16 of 31 months in the tested window
Best month
+530.4%
2021-05 · 1 of 31 trades · best of 31 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.56
all 31 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:ETHUSDT1DPosition sizeSlippage
- Position size TradingView sizes each order on the signal candle's close, so sizes differ slightly from the backtest.
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$312,124
With the open position marked
$71,685
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
PROMISING
Verdict
Strategy replay
- 20-candle high
- 20-candle low
- 20-candle low
Entry
2,353.44
Buy · 17 Mar 2026 · 62 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
-7.45%
Exit rule at 2,180.33 · 17 May 2026
Trace4 steps
Signal
candle close
2,352.97
16 Mar 2026
Filled
next open
2,353.44
17 Mar 2026
No stop
none
17 Mar 2026
Exit · Exit rule
2,180.77
17 May 2026
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins16
- Losses15
Your rules
Buys when
close breaks above the 20-candle range
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
31 closed trades · 1 open at the end of the data, marked at the last close
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | long | 2353.4406 | 2180.3338 | Loss |
| 10 Dec 2025 | long | 3318.7036 | 2939.2920 | Loss |
| 7 Oct 2025 | long | 4684.9568 | 3603.1192 | Loss |
| 10 Jul 2025 | long | 2769.2937 | 4198.2502 | Win |
| 9 May 2025 | long | 2207.8315 | 2295.2609 | Win |
| 22 Sept 2024 | long | 2612.9225 | 3416.3266 | Win |
| 21 May 2024 | long | 3662.5224 | 3496.6305 | Loss |
| 9 Apr 2024 | long | 3695.3489 | 3006.4086 | Loss |
| 24 Oct 2023 | long | 1765.8231 | 3158.0183 | Win |
| 2 Oct 2023 | long | 1734.1468 | 1539.3021 | Loss |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | open | open |
| 2018 | open | 107.7% | — | open | 8.0% | — | open | -24.3% | — | — | -15.2% | open |
| 2019 | -18.4% | open | open | 23.5% | open | 21.3% | -8.8% | — | open | -17.8% | — | — |
| 2020 | open | open | 38.2% | open | open | open | open | open | 95.3% | open | open | open |
| 2021 | open | open | open | open | 530.4% | — | open | open | 20.8% | open | 5.3% | — |
| 2022 | — | — | open | open | -12.5% | — | open | 11.1% | -24.9% | open | -24.6% | open |
| 2023 | open | 14.4% | open | open | open | 2.9% | open | -16.2% | — | -11.3% | open | open |
| 2024 | open | open | 78.7% | -18.7% | open | -4.6% | — | — | open | open | open | 30.6% |
| 2025 | — | — | — | — | open | 3.9% | open | open | 51.5% | open | -23.2% | open |
| 2026 | -11.5% | — | open | open | -7.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Analysis