Backtest the Donchian Four-Week Rule on ETHUSDT
On the daily chart of Ethereum it buys when close breaks above the 20-candle range. No stop loss, a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open.
3 notes about this test
- The original rule reverses to short on the downside break; Spot cannot short, so the downside break is used as a flat exit only.
- Four weeks is taken as 20 candles, which on a 24/7 crypto market is 20 days rather than 20 trading days.
- No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
2 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before open positions were separated from closed trades; its stored win count includes a position still open at the end of the data (+37.9% of equity, marked at the last close). This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
- This report was produced before win rate and trade counts cover closed trades only; its stored figures counted a position still open at the end of the data as closed (15 wins of 29, 51.7%); over closed trades it is 14 wins of 28, 50.0%. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
50.0%win rate · 28 trades
RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 28
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 55.7%
high win rate · 29 trades
- Verdict rules v1
What to watch
- Deep drawdown · 51.8%, past the 40% we look for
What the data supports
Beat buy & hold
+1349.6% vs +954.4%
same symbol, same window · 28 closed trades
Months in profit
50% of months closed up
14 of 28 months in the tested window
Best month
+530.4%
2021-05 · 1 of 28 trades · best of 28 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.55
all 28 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return · closed trades
1349.6%
+395.2 pts vs buy & holdClosed trades +1349.6% · open position +549.4% unrealized · +1898.9% with it marked
Win rate
50.0%
28 trades
Profit factor
1.55
14 wins · 14 losses
Max drawdown
-51.8%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
2,353.44
Buy · 17 Mar 2026 · 62 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
-7.45%
Exit rule at 2,180.33 · 17 May 2026
Monthly returns
Best month
530.4%
Worst month
-24.9%
Typical month
-0.85%
Months in profit
50%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$144,958
Final · closed trades
$199,894
With the open position marked
$105,443
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins14
- Losses14
Rules
Buys when
close breaks above the 20-candle range
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -15.2% | open |
| 2019 | -18.4% | open | open | 23.5% | open | 21.3% | -8.8% | — | open | -17.8% | — | — |
| 2020 | open | open | 38.2% | open | open | open | open | open | 95.3% | open | open | open |
| 2021 | open | open | open | open | 530.4% | — | open | open | 20.8% | open | 5.3% | — |
| 2022 | — | — | open | open | -12.5% | — | open | 11.1% | -24.9% | open | -24.6% | open |
| 2023 | open | 14.4% | open | open | open | 2.9% | open | -16.2% | — | -11.3% | open | open |
| 2024 | open | open | 78.7% | -18.7% | open | -4.6% | — | — | open | open | open | 30.6% |
| 2025 | — | — | — | — | open | 3.9% | open | open | 51.5% | open | -23.2% | open |
| 2026 | -11.5% | — | open | open | -7.5% | — | open | open | open | — | — | — |
Latest trades
28 closed · 1 open at the end of the data, marked at the last close
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | long | 1892.2484 | 2611.6176 | Open |
| 17 Mar 2026 | long | 2353.4406 | 2180.3338 | Loss |
| 10 Dec 2025 | long | 3318.7036 | 2939.2920 | Loss |
| 7 Oct 2025 | long | 4684.9568 | 3603.1192 | Loss |
| 10 Jul 2025 | long | 2769.2937 | 4198.2502 | Win |
| 9 May 2025 | long | 2207.8315 | 2295.2609 | Win |
| 22 Sept 2024 | long | 2612.9225 | 3416.3266 | Win |
| 21 May 2024 | long | 3662.5224 | 3496.6305 | Loss |
| 9 Apr 2024 | long | 3695.3489 | 3006.4086 | Loss |
| 24 Oct 2023 | long | 1765.8231 | 3158.0183 | Win |
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