Backtesting, explained honestly
Short pieces on the things that decide whether a backtest means anything: bias, costs, sample size and timeframes.
Swing Trading Backtest: 7 Steps to Catch a False Edge
Test a swing trading backtest with point in time data, realistic fills, walk forward validation, and five diagnostics to expose false edges.
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Regime Detection in Trading: Backtest Before Risking Capital
Learn how HMMs, clustering, and volatility filters classify market regimes, then validate signals with walk forward backtests before changing trading risk.
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Historical Data for Backtests: 3 Trials Can Undermine a 10 Year Sharpe
Learn how backtesting data length varies by trade frequency, then estimate a sound sample using market regimes, trial counts, and the Deflated Sharpe.
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Order Block Backtesting: Code the Rules Before Trusting Results
Turn order block rules into code, then test with realistic costs, out of sample data, and walk forward checks. Track profit factor and drawdown.
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MAE and MFE Analysis: Set Percentile Stops Without Guesswork
Use MAE and MFE analysis to set stops by percentile, compare excursions normalized by ATR, and log journal fields for evidence based reviews.
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Traders: Calculate Your $7 Edge with the Trading Expectancy Formula
Calculate trading expectancy with concrete examples ($7/trade, 0.09R). Include costs, avoid overfitting, and validate your edge with realistic backtests.
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Stop Guessing Risk Reward Ratio: Six Step Backtest and 2% Sizing
Evidence-first guide to risk reward ratio for retail traders: calculate R:R, apply the 2% sizing rule, and run a six step backtest with Backtestify to...
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Turn Kelly Criterion Into Validated Position Sizes for Traders
Trader-focused, implementation-first guide to turn Kelly Criterion math into validated position sizes. Learn fractional Kelly, portfolio constraints, and...
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Reduce Overfitting: Backtest First Stop Loss Optimization for Quants
Backtest first stop loss optimization for algo developers and quants. Use walk-forward validation, Monte Carlo stress tests, and conservative slippage...
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5,000 Paths: Monte Carlo Backtesting That Exposes Tail Risk for Traders & Devs
Learn which methods, block lengths, and OOS checks to run—and why 5,000+ paths reveal true drawdown, ruin probability, and reproducible risk limits.
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Next Candle Prediction for Traders: Evidence First Backtest Workflow
Evidence first guide: turn next candle signals into tested probabilities. Combine candle features, volume and trend filters, then backtest before risking...
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Profit Factor: Why 1.3–2.0 Alone Misleads Traders on After Costs
Learn an execution first view of profit factor: compute it after costs, check trade count and equity curve, and verify out of sample results before...
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Backtest ICT Without Code: Walk Forward Workflow for ICT Traders
Convert discretionary ICT setups into plain English AI assisted rules, run walk forward validation, and check execution across engines before risking capital.
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8 Step TradingView Pine Script Backtest to Catch Repaint and Fill Bugs
An 8 Step TradingView Pine Script backtest checklist to avoid repaint, fill, and trailing stop bugs. Export to CLI for reproducible analysis and deeper...
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0.5–1% Baseline: Position Sizing Methods Every Trader Should Test
Position sizing methods with math examples, Kelly and Bayesian cautions, and a workflow that tests first. Start with a 0.5–1% baseline before risking live...
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8 Steps to Backtest Futures Strategies for Developers: Execution-First Checklist
An execution-first checklist for developers and algo traders: eight concrete steps to map exchange specs to fills, model 1 tick per-side costs, and reach...
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Stop Overfitting: Walk Forward Analysis for Algo and Retail Traders
Practical walk forward analysis for algorithmic and retail traders. Implementation checks include purge and embargo controls, state resets, DSR and PBO,...
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95th Percentile Simulations to Cut Your Risk of Ruin
Simulation first guide to estimate and control risk of ruin with Monte Carlo and bootstrap percentiles (95th, 99th), concrete sizing rules, and evidence...
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Prove Risk Adjusted Returns With a Sharpe and Sortino Worked Example
Learn how to calculate and validate risk adjusted returns using clear formulas, a reproducible Sharpe and Sortino example, and practical backtesting checks.
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4 Quick Tests to Expose Look-Ahead Bias in Quant Backtests
Diagnostic-first guide for quant teams to expose and fix look-ahead bias. Use T+1 shifts, timestamp audits, purged cross-validation, and a reproducible...
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Data Snooping Bias for Traders: Reality Check, SPA, and Tools
How data snooping bias inflates backtests, which tests (Reality Check, SPA) detect it, and practical backtesting steps and tools to expose overfitting...
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50-Day Purge Gaps: Out-of-Sample Testing Rules for Traders
Trader how-to: run walk-forward out-of-sample tests. Enforce purge gaps, lock parameters, and use Deflated Sharpe to expose backtest inflation.
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Backtest Trading Strategies Like a Regulator for Traders
Use a regulator-style, evidence-based workflow to backtest trading strategies: precise rules, realistic fills, out-of-sample validation, and paper trading...
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Maximum Drawdown for Traders: Spot 50% Losses That Need 100% Gains
Calculate maximum drawdown, run backtest checks to expose hidden risk, and validate trading strategies with peak to trough examples.
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Backtest Your Options Strategy With Realistic Fills and Robust Tests
Backtest options strategies using realistic fills, out of sample checks, and Monte Carlo stress tests. Try a free Backtestify account to run your first...
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