Backtest the Donchian Four-Week Rule on BTCUSDT
On the daily chart of Bitcoin it buys when close breaks above the 20-candle range. No stop loss, a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open.
3 notes about this test
- The original rule reverses to short on the downside break; Spot cannot short, so the downside break is used as a flat exit only.
- Four weeks is taken as 20 candles, which on a 24/7 crypto market is 20 days rather than 20 trading days.
- No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
55.2%win rate · 29 trades
RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 29
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 61.6%
high win rate · 29 trades
- Verdict rules v1
What the data supports
Beat buy & hold
+1801.1% vs +1096.7%
same symbol, same window · 29 closed trades
Months in profit
54% of months closed up
15 of 28 months in the tested window
Best month
+285.1%
2021-05 · 1 of 29 trades · best of 28 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.96
all 29 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
1801.1%
+704.5 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
55.2%
29 trades
Profit factor
1.96
16 wins · 13 losses
Max drawdown
-33.8%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
65,057.00
Buy · 15 Jul 2026 · 64 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
+16.14%
Exit rule at 75,629.35 · 16 Sept 2026
Monthly returns
Best month
285.1%
Worst month
-18.0%
Typical month
3.37%
Months in profit
54%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$190,114
Final balance
$119,668
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins16
- Losses13
Rules
Buys when
close breaks above the 20-candle range
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | open | open | open | open | open | 141.7% | -18.0% | — | open | -11.4% | — |
| 2020 | open | 13.1% | — | open | open | open | open | open | 38.1% | open | open | open |
| 2021 | open | open | open | open | 285.1% | — | open | open | 15.0% | open | 10.4% | — |
| 2022 | — | open | open | -10.0% | — | — | open | -11.1% | open | open | -17.3% | open |
| 2023 | open | 21.5% | -10.9% | open | open | 4.1% | 2.9% | — | — | open | open | open |
| 2024 | 41.2% | open | open | open | 31.4% | -0.4% | open | -10.3% | -15.9% | open | open | open |
| 2025 | open | 48.1% | — | open | open | 8.5% | open | -9.3% | -6.8% | open | -14.5% | — |
| 2026 | -5.4% | — | open | open | 3.8% | — | open | open | 16.1% | — | — | — |
Latest trades
29 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | long | 65056.9988 | 75629.3511 | Win |
| 5 Mar 2026 | long | 72681.3034 | 75524.3921 | Win |
| 5 Jan 2026 | long | 91548.0459 | 86653.0259 | Loss |
| 2 Oct 2025 | long | 118618.7090 | 101476.9306 | Loss |
| 17 Sept 2025 | long | 116812.3178 | 108972.6911 | Loss |
| 14 Aug 2025 | long | 123331.1013 | 110089.9576 | Loss |
| 10 Jul 2025 | long | 111256.2468 | 113275.2604 | Win |
| 23 Apr 2025 | long | 93461.6786 | 101488.3883 | Win |
| 19 Sept 2024 | long | 61772.3320 | 91534.5694 | Win |
| 24 Aug 2024 | long | 64050.0474 | 53952.1774 | Loss |
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