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Free viewBacktest the Donchian Four-Week Rule on BNBUSDT
On the daily chart of BNB it buys when close breaks above the 20-candle range. No stop loss, a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open.
4 notes about this test
- The original rule reverses to short on the downside break; Spot cannot short, so the downside break is used as a flat exit only.
- Four weeks is taken as 20 candles, which on a 24/7 crypto market is 20 days rather than 20 trading days.
- No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.
- 29 trades: the most these rules produce in 8.8 years of 1d candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 4 markets107 trades · 49.5% win · — avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNBUSDT | 29 | 48.3% | — |
| BTCUSDT | 29 | 55.2% | — |
| ETHUSDT | 27 | 51.9% | — |
| SOLUSDT | 22 | 40.9% | — |
| All · 1d | 107 | 49.5% | — |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 1996-10-17 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2018-01-05 (warm-up 60 bars)
Verdict
NOT RECOMMENDEDwin rate · 29 trades
- Ended above the starting budget+4661.9% · 14.250%
- Win rate 50% or above48.3%
- More than 50 trades29 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 29
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 3208 days
- Time in market
- 61.0%
Win rate 48.3%, below 50%
What to watch
- Deep drawdown · 65.6%, past the 40% we look for
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Best month
+1576.4%
2021-05 · 1 of 29 trades · best of 29 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 2.11
all 29 trades
Net return
+4661.9%
all 29 trades
Average trade
+14.250%
all 29 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:BNBUSDT1DPosition sizeSlippage
- Position size TradingView sizes each order on the signal candle's close, so sizes differ slightly from the backtest.
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$576,808
With the open position marked
$482,190
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
D
Grade
NOT RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Strategy replay
- 20-candle high
- 20-candle low
- 20-candle low
Entry
635.90
Buy · 17 Apr 2026 · 49 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
-2.52%
Exit rule at 620.51 · 4 Jun 2026
Trace4 steps
Signal
candle close
635.77
16 Apr 2026
Filled
next open
635.90
17 Apr 2026
No stop
none
17 Apr 2026
Exit · Exit rule
620.63
4 Jun 2026
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins14
- Losses15
Your rules
Buys when
close breaks above the 20-candle range
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close below the 20-candle low closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
29 closed trades · 1 open at the end of the data, marked at the last close
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2026 | long | 635.8972 | 620.5059 | Loss |
| 5 Mar 2026 | long | 658.1316 | 583.4033 | Loss |
| 5 Jan 2026 | long | 895.6091 | 781.2337 | Loss |
| 10 Jul 2025 | long | 668.8237 | 993.3413 | Win |
| 23 Apr 2025 | long | 618.6237 | 633.2033 | Win |
| 10 Nov 2024 | long | 624.7949 | 617.6764 | Loss |
| 20 Sept 2024 | long | 567.0134 | 557.5885 | Loss |
| 23 Aug 2024 | long | 583.1166 | 487.2025 | Loss |
| 20 Jul 2024 | long | 593.5187 | 529.5941 | Loss |
| 24 Oct 2023 | long | 228.6457 | 567.9864 | Win |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | open | -55.0% | open | open | open | open | 8.9% | -29.8% | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | open | open | open | open | 188.6% | open | 9.5% | — | — | open | -4.4% | — |
| 2020 | open | 25.2% | — | open | open | 9.8% | open | open | 21.3% | open | -5.9% | open |
| 2021 | open | open | open | open | 1576.4% | — | — | open | 2.1% | open | open | open |
| 2022 | 7.1% | — | open | -4.9% | — | — | open | open | 4.9% | open | -14.4% | — |
| 2023 | open | open | 5.9% | open | -4.9% | — | open | -9.5% | — | open | open | open |
| 2024 | open | open | open | open | open | 148.2% | open | -10.9% | -16.5% | open | -1.8% | open |
| 2025 | open | -1.2% | — | open | open | 2.3% | open | open | open | open | 48.4% | — |
| 2026 | open | -12.9% | open | -11.4% | open | -2.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Analysis