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Rayner Teo

Moving-average pullback

Verified4H · 1DNot recommended Channel

A trend-following pullback: with price above the 200 SMA, wait for the low to touch the 50 SMA and a bullish reversal candle to form, then ride the move until price closes back below the 50 SMA.

Win rate

38.3%

Share of trades that closed in profit

Trades

107

Completed trades in the test

Profit factor

4.54

Above 1 means profit beat loss

Return

59.1%

Account change over the window · buy & hold 963.8%

Max drawdown

5.5%

Worst fall from a peak

Most-tested backtest · BTCUSDT 1D2018-09-022026-08-31 · 8.0 years

Step by step, exactly as executed

1

Timeframe

4H · 1D

2

Setup / filter

close > SMA(200) AND the candle low touches or crosses below SMA(50)

3

Entry

the signal candle is a bullish reversal candle (bullish engulfing, or a hammer with a lower wick at least twice its body and the close in the top third) → market at the next candle open

4

Stop

lowest low of the 5 completed candles before the signal candle minus 1 × ATR(14)

5

Target / exit

Target: no fixed target · Rule exit: a close below SMA(50) closes the trade at the next open

6

Risk

1% of equity risked to the stop

6

Executable rules

1

Published sources

4

Known limitations

The published rules, verbatim

1

Timeframe

daily (4 hour also works).

2

Trend filter

the close is above the 200-period simple moving average.

3

Setup

price pulls back and the candle low touches the 50-period simple moving average.

4

Entry trigger

a bullish reversal candle at the moving average (bullish engulfing or hammer); enter at the next candle open.

5

Stop loss

1 ATR below the swing low (the lowest low of the last 5 candles).

6

Exit

a close below the 50-period moving average.

Sources

What this test cannot reproduce

Long side only: the mirror short setup cannot be executed on Spot.

He also teaches taking profit at a previous swing high or trailing the move; that judgement call is NOT applied — the published moving-average exit is used instead.

"Swing low" is mechanical here: the lowest low of the last 5 candles, with the stop 1 ATR(14) below it.

Published for forex, stocks and indices; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.

Portfolio — every backtest of this strategy

Each row prints the exact window it was measured on. Rows with different windows measure different market periods, so their numbers differ without contradicting each other.

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