Rayner TeoRayner TeoNot recommended 4H · 1DChannel

Moving-average pullback

38.3%Win rate
107Trades
3.39Profit factor
+59.2%Return · hold +1482.4%
5.5%Drawdown

Account curve

BTCUSDT · 1D · 7.5 years
+59.2%107 trades · trailed holding by 1423.1 pts
StrategyBuy & hold

Verdict

38.3%win rate
Not recommended
Win rate 50% or above (not passed)38.3%
Ended in profit (passed)+59.2%
More than 50 trades (passed)107

Wins and losses

41of 107 won
Wins 41Losses 66
Drawdown6%
Hold drawdown75%
Time in market28%

Rules

Timeframe4H · 1D
4H · 1D
Setup / filterclose > SMA(200) AND the candle low touches or crosses below SMA(50)
close > SMA(200) AND the candle low touches or crosses below SMA(50)
Entrythe signal candle is a bullish reversal candle (bullish engulfing, or a hammer with a lower wick at least twice its body and the close in the top third) → market at the next candle open
the signal candle is a bullish reversal candle (bullish engulfing, or a hammer with a lower wick at least twice its body and the close in the top third) → market at the next candle open
Stoplowest low of the 5 completed candles before the signal candle minus 1 × ATR(14)
lowest low of the 5 completed candles before the signal candle minus 1 × ATR(14)
Target / exitTarget: no fixed target · Rule exit: a close below SMA(50) closes the trade at the next open
Target: no fixed target · Rule exit: a close below SMA(50) closes the trade at the next open
Risk1% of equity risked to the stop
1% of equity risked to the stop

Differences from the video

4
Shown on every result

Long side only: the mirror short setup cannot be executed on Spot.

He also teaches taking profit at a previous swing high or trailing the move; that judgement call is NOT applied, the published moving-average exit is used instead.

"Swing low" is mechanical here: the lowest low of the last 5 candles, with the stop 1 ATR(14) below it.

Published for forex, stocks and indices; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.

Rules executed6
Published sources1

Sources

Every backtest of these rules