Michael J. Huddleston (Inner Circle Trader)
ICT Silver Bullet (New York windows 03–04 · 10–11 · 14–15)
An intraday liquidity model traded only in the New York 03-04, 10-11 and 14-15 windows: price sweeps a short-term low, then a later candle leaves a fair value gap, and a limit order is placed at the 50% of that gap with the stop under the sweep.
Win rate
27.8%
Share of trades that closed in profit
Trades
126
Completed trades in the test
Profit factor
0.32
Above 1 means profit beat loss
Return
-18.5%
Account change over the window · buy & hold -23.6%
Max drawdown
18.5%
Worst fall from a peak
Step by step, exactly as executed
Timeframe
5M
Setup / filter
no separate filter — the entry rule is the whole setup
Entry
inside 03:00-04:00 / 10:00-11:00 / 14:00-15:00 America/New_York time, price first sweeps the 20-candle low and closes back above it, then a LATER candle in the same window completes a bullish fair value gap → limit at the 50% level of the sequence's fair value gap, valid until the session window closes (filled at the level, or at the open on a gap)
Stop
the low of the sweep candle that armed the sequence
Target / exit
Target: 2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk
1% of equity risked to the stop
Executable rules
Published sources
Known limitations
The published rules, verbatim
Timeframe
5 minute. Only inside a Silver Bullet window, New York time: 03:00–04:00, 10:00–11:00 (the primary window) or 14:00–15:00. Step 1 — inside the window, price sweeps short-term liquidity: a candle's low breaks below the lowest low of the previous 20 candles and the candle closes back above that level. Step 2 — a LATER candle in the SAME window displaces upward and leaves a three-candle fair value gap (its low is above the high two candles back).
Entry
a limit order at the 50% level of that fair value gap, valid until the window closes. One trade per window.
Stop loss
below the low of the swing that was swept (the sweep candle's wick).
Take profit
the next liquidity pool above; 2R or better is the published expectation.
Sources
What this test cannot reproduce
Shorts (a sweep of a recent high inside the window) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
"Next liquidity pool above" is approximated by a fixed 2R target, because the published rule depends on the trader's own draw on liquidity.
"Short-term liquidity" is mechanical here: the lowest low of the previous 20 five-minute candles.
Displacement is not measured as a size threshold; the completed three-candle fair value gap with a bullish middle candle is used as the evidence of it.
The published model names 10:00–11:00 New York as the primary window; all three published windows are tested, and the sequence state is dropped when the window closes.
The model was published for indices and futures traded around the New York session; this test runs on the crypto pair you named, which trades 24/7.
Portfolio — every backtest of this strategy
Each row prints the exact window it was measured on. Rows with different windows measure different market periods, so their numbers differ without contradicting each other.
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