Backtest the ICT Silver Bullet strategy on BTCUSDT
On the 5-minute chart of BTCUSDT, it buys when inside 03:00-04:00 / 10:00-11:00 / 14:00-15:00 America/New_York time, price first sweeps the 20-candle low and closes back above it, then a LATER candle in the same window completes a bullish fair value gap. It gets out on its stop rule, and takes profit at 2× what it risked. Each trade risks 1% of the account.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
28.0%win rate · 125 trades
NOT RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 125
- Timeframe
- 5M
- Tested over
- 625 days
- Time in market
- 1.3%
Lost money after costs: profit factor 0.47
What the data supports
Best month
+1.9%
2025-11 · 2 of 125 trades · best of 21 months
Drawdown stayed shallow
-18.6% deepest fall from peak
all 125 trades
Sample is large enough to read
125 closed trades
all 125 trades · 100 is the reporting minimum on 5M
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
D
Grade
NOT RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
-18.6%
-3.3 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
28.0%
125 trades
Profit factor
0.47
35 wins · 90 losses
Max drawdown
-18.6%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
79,137.66
Buy · 9 Sept, 14:40 · 5 bars
Stop loss
78,877.36
0.33% away
Take profit
79,658.26
0.66% away
Result
-0.45R
Stop loss at 78,861.58
Monthly returns
Best month
1.9%
Worst month
-4.0%
Typical month
-0.87%
Months in profit
19%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$8,139
Final balance
$8,467
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins35
- Losses90
Rules
Buys when
inside 03:00-04:00 / 10:00-11:00 / 14:00-15:00 America/New_York time, price first sweeps the 20-candle low and closes back above it, then a LATER candle in the same window completes a bullish fair value gap
Stop
the low of the sweep candle that armed the sequence
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.0% | -2.5% | -0.8% | 0.3% | -2.8% | -0.2% | -1.3% | 0.0% | -1.9% | 0.6% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 2026 | -2.2% | -1.3% | 0.4% | -1.7% | -4.0% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -2.1% | -0.4% | — | — | — |
Latest trades
125 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sept 2026 | long | 79137.6594 | 78861.5845 | Loss |
| 28 Aug 2026 | long | 79130.2029 | 78606.4756 | Loss |
| 16 Aug 2026 | long | 63174.6324 | 63107.3760 | Loss |
| 14 Aug 2026 | long | 62731.7838 | 62592.2291 | Loss |
| 12 Aug 2026 | long | 63437.8200 | 63387.3100 | Loss |
| 12 Aug 2026 | long | 63772.1419 | 63587.2800 | Loss |
| 3 Aug 2026 | long | 62645.6866 | 62579.4816 | Loss |
| 31 Jul 2026 | long | 62679.1833 | 63092.9289 | Win |
| 23 Jul 2026 | long | 65005.0734 | 64831.0312 | Loss |
| 20 Jul 2026 | long | 64400.8776 | 64849.1004 | Win |
This is the free view of a shared report. Run your own strategy on the same engine.
Backtest a strategy