Shared report
Free viewBacktest the ICT Silver Bullet strategy on BTCUSDT
On the 5-minute chart of Bitcoin it buys when inside 03:00-04:00 / 10:00-11:00 / 14:00-15:00 America/New_York time, price first sweeps the 20-candle low and closes back above it, then a LATER candle in the same window completes a bullish fair value gap. Stop beyond the sweep candle, target 2× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
7 notes about this test
- Shorts (a sweep of a recent high inside the window) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- "Next liquidity pool above" is approximated by a fixed 2R target, because the published rule depends on the trader's own draw on liquidity.
- "Short-term liquidity" is mechanical here: the lowest low of the previous 20 five-minute candles.
- Displacement is not measured as a size threshold; the completed three-candle fair value gap with a bullish middle candle is used as the evidence of it.
- The published model names 10:00–11:00 New York as the primary window; all three published windows are tested, and the sequence state is dropped when the window closes.
- The model was published for indices and futures traded around the New York session; this test runs on the crypto pair you named, which trades 24/7.
- Held until stop or target: the published rules state a stop and a target but no session close, so a trade still open at the end of its entry window is not closed there.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 2025-01-31 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2025-01-31 (warm-up 60 bars)
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 124 of the 127 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
- This report was produced before the translation card was checked against the rules that ran; its card listed a rule as tested exactly that did not run as written ("Limit entry at the 50% level of that gap, valid until the window closes, one trade per …"). Re-run to get corrected results.
Verdict
NOT RECOMMENDEDwin rate · 127 trades
- Ended above the starting budget-16.7% · -3.642R
- Win rate 50% or above29.9%
- More than 50 trades127 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 127
- Timeframe
- 5M
- Tested over
- 625 days
- Time in market
- 1.5%
Ended 16.7% below the starting budget
What to watch
- 124 of 127 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
What the data supports
Fell less than buy & hold
-16.7% vs -21.8%
same symbol, same window · 127 closed trades
Best month
+1.8%
2025-11 · 2 of 127 trades · best of 21 months
Drawdown stayed shallow
-17.9% deepest fall from peak
all 127 trades
Sample is large enough to read
127 closed trades
all 127 trades · 100 is the reporting minimum on 5M
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:BTCUSDT5MSlippageGapped stop
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
- Gapped stop When price gaps past the stop, the backtest skips the trade; the script enters and is stopped out.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$7,822
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
D
Grade
NOT RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Strategy replay
Entry
83,496.69
Buy · 14 Oct, 03:15 NY · 11 bars
Stop loss
83,333.00
0.20% away
Take profit
83,824.06
0.39% away
Result
+1.28R
Take profit · 0.25% of equity, size-capped
Trace5 steps
Signal
candle close
83,513.79
14 Oct, 03:05 NY
Filled
pending order
83,496.69
14 Oct, 03:15 NY
Stop
sweep low
83,333.00
14 Oct, 03:15 NY
TP1 · 2.00R
r multiple
83,824.06
14 Oct, 03:15 NY
Exit · Take profit · 0.25R
83,824.06
14 Oct, 04:05 NY
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins38
- Losses89
Your rules
Buys when
inside 03:00-04:00 / 10:00-11:00 / 14:00-15:00 America/New_York time, price first sweeps the 20-candle low and closes back above it, then a LATER candle in the same window completes a bullish fair value gap
Stop
the low of the sweep candle that armed the sequence
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 124 of 127 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
127 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | long | 83496.6850 | 83824.0550 | Win |
| 4 Oct 2026 | long | 85320.7100 | 85338.1100 | Loss |
| 25 Sept 2026 | long | 83767.7450 | 84937.2350 | Win |
| 20 Sept 2026 | long | 81178.1300 | 81014.7638 | Loss |
| 19 Sept 2026 | long | 81422.5350 | 81402.3163 | Loss |
| 9 Sept 2026 | long | 79121.8350 | 78861.5845 | Loss |
| 28 Aug 2026 | long | 79114.3800 | 78606.4756 | Loss |
| 16 Aug 2026 | long | 63162.0000 | 63107.3760 | Loss |
| 14 Aug 2026 | long | 62719.2400 | 62592.2291 | Loss |
| 12 Aug 2026 | long | 63425.1350 | 63387.3100 | Loss |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | -1.5% | -1.0% | 0.1% | -1.9% | -0.4% | -0.6% | -0.2% | -1.9% | 0.3% | 1.8% | -0.9% |
| 2026 | -2.3% | -1.5% | 0.1% | -1.7% | -4.0% | -0.8% | -0.2% | -2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
Advanced Analysis