Backtest the Tori Trades trendline strategy on ETHUSDT
On the 4-hour chart of Ethereum it buys when candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line. Stop at the safety trendline, target 2× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
5 notes about this test
- Her shorts (a rising support trendline broken downward) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- Her instruments are XPTUSD, WTI, XAUUSD and US30 on 4H; this test runs on the crypto pair you named, which behaves differently.
- "Nearest horizontal support/resistance giving 2R or more" is approximated as a fixed 2R target.
- The safety trendline is the line through the last two confirmed pivot lows; when those lows are not rising, the lowest low of the last 20 candles is used instead.
- Trendline drawing is mechanical (confirmed 3-bar pivots, tap tolerance 0.15%), not hand-drawn, so individual lines can differ from hers.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
4 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 1 of the 15 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
- This report was produced before limit fills stopped taking slippage in their price, and a re-picked target waits for the script; defect "target filled beyond its limit": its target fills were shown 0.02% short of the target (the P&L effect is commission × slippage, below 0.001% per trade). Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before an entry whose fill gapped past its stop was dropped; a trade whose fill gapped past its stop may be missing from this report; a re-run includes it (usually a small loss at the open). Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before an entry that filled exactly on its stop was dropped; a trade whose fill opened exactly on its stop may be missing from this report; a re-run includes it (about zero before costs). Re-run to get corrected results.
40.0%win rate · 15 trades, too few to judge
RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 15
- Timeframe
- 4H
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 5.5%
steady edge · 15 trades, limited sample
- Verdict rules v1
What to watch
- 1 of 15 trades were size-capped at 1× equity
What the data supports
Best month
+3.9%
2022-10 · 2 of 15 trades · best of 13 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.36
all 15 trades
Net return
+3.1%
all 15 trades
Average trade
+0.117R
all 15 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
3.1%
-1069.6 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
40.0%
15 trades
Profit factor
1.36
6 wins · 9 losses
Max drawdown
-2.4%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
1,875.60
Buy · 14 Jul, 12:00 NY · 218 bars
Stop loss
1,750.20
6.69% away
Take profit
2,126.39
13.37% away
Result
+1.98R
Take profit at 2,125.96 · 19 Aug, 16:00 NY
Monthly returns
Best month
3.9%
Worst month
-2.1%
Typical month
-1.01%
Months in profit
38%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$10,314
Final balance
$117,273
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins6
- Losses9
Rules
Buys when
candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line
Stop
safety trendline through the last two confirmed pivot lows, measured 5 candles after the signal candle (fallback: lowest low of the 20 candles before the signal candle)
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 1 of 15 trades were size-capped at 1× equity
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | — | open | -1.0% | — |
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.3% | — | — | — | open | 2.0% | -1.0% |
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.1% | — | — | 3.9% | — | — |
| 2023 | — | open | -1.0% | — | — | open | open | -1.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | — | -2.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | open | 2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Latest trades
15 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | long | 1875.5950 | 2125.9599 | Win |
| 19 Jul 2024 | long | 3523.6846 | 3345.8807 | Loss |
| 30 Jun 2024 | long | 3438.8476 | 3351.9895 | Loss |
| 6 Feb 2024 | long | 2344.1987 | 2419.5180 | Win |
| 30 Jun 2023 | long | 1926.7053 | 1816.1967 | Loss |
| 15 Feb 2023 | long | 1691.7483 | 1540.3959 | Loss |
| 25 Oct 2022 | long | 1408.5717 | 1486.4010 | Win |
| 21 Oct 2022 | long | 1303.5507 | 1360.0599 | Win |
| 3 Jul 2022 | long | 1077.8455 | 1060.5518 | Loss |
| 26 Dec 2021 | long | 4080.9160 | 3944.7909 | Loss |
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