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Free viewBacktest the Tori Trades trendline strategy on ETHUSDT
On the 4-hour chart of Ethereum it buys when candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line. Stop at the safety trendline, target 2× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
6 notes about this test
- Her shorts (a rising support trendline broken downward) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- Her instruments are XPTUSD, WTI, XAUUSD and US30 on 4H; this test runs on the crypto pair you named, which behaves differently.
- "Nearest horizontal support/resistance giving 2R or more" is approximated as a fixed 2R target.
- The safety trendline is the line through the last two confirmed pivot lows; when those lows are not rising, the lowest low of the last 20 candles is used instead.
- Trendline drawing is mechanical (confirmed 3-bar pivots, tap tolerance 0.15%), not hand-drawn, so individual lines can differ from hers.
- 21 trades: the most these rules produce in 9 years of 4h candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 5 markets100 trades · 47.0% win · +0.41R avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT | 21 | 42.9% | +0.29R |
| BTCUSDT | 16 | 37.5% | +0.12R |
| SOLUSDT | 15 | 53.3% | +0.58R |
| BNBUSDT | 15 | 33.3% | +0.03R |
| XRPUSDT | 33 | 57.6% | +0.72R |
| All · 4h | 100 | 47.0% | +0.41R |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 1996-10-17 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2017-10-23 (warm-up 405 bars)
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 1 of the 21 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
Verdict
INCONCLUSIVEwin rate · 21 trades, too few to judge
- Ended above the starting budget+6.0% · 0.219R
- Win rate 50% or above42.9%
- More than 50 trades21 trades
- Under 10% of trades on missing bars20 of 21 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 21
- Timeframe
- 4H
- Tested over
- 3281 days
- Time in market
- 5.5%
20 of 21 trades depend on missing bars
What to watch
- 1 of 21 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Too few trades to judge: 21 of the 40 this timeframe needs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Best month
+4.0%
2022-10 · 2 of 21 trades · best of 19 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.50
all 21 trades
Net return
+6.0%
all 21 trades
Average trade
+0.219R
all 21 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:ETHUSDT4HSlippageTrendlineGapped stop
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
- Trendline The script draws a simpler line, through the last two swing points.
- Gapped stop When price gaps past the stop, the backtest skips the trade; the script enters and is stopped out.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$84,788
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
—
Grade
INCONCLUSIVE
Verdict
Strategy replay
- Pattern
- Stop
- TP1
Entry
1,875.60
Buy · 14 Jul, 12:00 NY · 218 bars
Stop loss
1,750.20
6.69% away
Take profit
2,126.39
13.37% away
Result
+1.98R
Take profit at 2,126.39 · 19 Aug, 16:00 NY
Trace5 steps
Signal
candle close
1,875.22
14 Jul, 08:00 NY
Filled
next open
1,875.60
14 Jul, 12:00 NY
Stop
safety trendline
1,750.20
14 Jul, 12:00 NY
TP1 · 2.00R
r multiple
2,126.39
14 Jul, 12:00 NY
Exit · Take profit · 1.99R
2,126.39
19 Aug, 16:00 NY
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins9
- Losses12
Your rules
Buys when
candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line
Stop
safety trendline through the last two confirmed pivot lows, measured 5 candles after the signal candle (fallback: lowest low of the 20 candles before the signal candle)
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 1 of 21 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
21 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | long | 1875.5950 | 2126.3851 | Win |
| 19 Jul 2024 | long | 3523.6846 | 3345.8807 | Loss |
| 30 Jun 2024 | long | 3438.8476 | 3351.9895 | Loss |
| 6 Feb 2024 | long | 2344.1987 | 2420.0020 | Win |
| 30 Jun 2023 | long | 1926.7053 | 1816.1967 | Loss |
| 15 Feb 2023 | long | 1691.7483 | 1540.3959 | Loss |
| 25 Oct 2022 | long | 1408.5717 | 1487.0000 | Win |
| 21 Oct 2022 | long | 1303.5507 | 1360.3320 | Win |
| 3 Jul 2022 | long | 1077.8455 | 1060.5518 | Loss |
| 26 Dec 2021 | long | 4080.9160 | 3944.7909 | Loss |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | — |
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | -1.0% | 2.0% | — | open | 2.0% | — | — | -1.0% | — | open | -1.0% | — |
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.3% | — | — | — | open | 2.0% | -1.0% |
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.1% | — | — | 4.0% | — | — |
| 2023 | — | open | -1.0% | — | — | open | open | -1.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | — | -2.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | open | 2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Analysis