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Free viewGold Demand/Supply Zone Strategy
We tested 363 variations on older data and kept removed do not trade if price closes through the zone (dead zone), removed only trade fresh zones, removed do not trade if price is diving into the zone (falling knife) and only trade when RSI(14) below 65, volume above 1.5× its 20-candle average and previous candle closed bullish. Chosen on the window shown, from 2,017 candidates checked there.
On the 5-minute chart of Gold Spot it buys when close > EMA(20), close > EMA(200), RSI(14) < 65 and previous candle is bullish, and sells short when close < EMA(20), close < EMA(200), RSI(14) > 35 and previous candle is bearish, only when the candle opens inside 08:00-21:00 UTC and volume > 1.5× its 20-candle average. Stop beyond the 20-candle swing, target 2× risk, 1% of the account per trade. It closes any open trade at the session close (08:00-21:00 UTC).
10 differences from what you wrotePrice taps into a demand zone and a candle closes above the zone · Price taps into a supply zone and a candle closes below the zone · Stop loss: Above the supply zone for short trades, below the demand zone for long trades · Target recent price action · Only trade with the trend · A session cut-off read as your rule (the position is closed at the end of 08:00-16:00 / 13:00-21:00 UTC) · Entries only between 08:00-16:00 UTC / 13:00-21:00 UTC, with no exit stated for the end of that window · Do not trade if price closes through the zone (dead zone) · Only trade fresh zones · Do not trade if price is diving into the zone (falling knife)
- Price taps into a demand zone and a candle closes above the zoneprice_vs_ema (source: close, period: 20, op: >)
Demand/supply zones are not supported; using EMA as a trend/reversal proxy.
- Price taps into a supply zone and a candle closes below the zoneprice_vs_ema (source: close, period: 20, op: <)
Demand/supply zones are not supported; using EMA as a trend/reversal proxy.
- Stop loss: Above the supply zone for short trades, below the demand zone for long tradesswing (lookback: 20)
Zone-based stops are not supported; using swing high/low as proxy.
- Target recent price actionr_multiple (r: 2)
No specific exit rule provided; using 2R as standard structural target.
- Only trade with the trendprice_vs_ema (source: close, period: 200, op: >)
Trend filter approximated using 200 EMA.
- A session cut-off read as your rule (the position is closed at the end of 08:00-16:00 / 13:00-21:00 UTC)Not counted as your rule — the description never says when an open trade is closed
Your description limits when a trade may be OPENED but never states when one is CLOSED, so a cut-off presented as your own rule would be a rule you did not write. The trade is still closed rather than carried for days — the note below says exactly how, as Backtestify's convention. If the real strategy does state an exit, say it and it will be tested as written.
- Entries only between 08:00-16:00 UTC / 13:00-21:00 UTC, with no exit stated for the end of that windowThe position is also CLOSED at the end of 08:00-16:00 UTC / 13:00-21:00 UTC
The description says when a trade may be OPENED but never when an open one must be closed. With only a stop and a target to end it, a single position is carried across days and blocks every later signal in the window — the 60-minute scalp this was read from booked one trade from 65 qualifying candles. The strategy is therefore executed as being in the market only during the hours it names, so a trade that has not hit its stop or target by the end of the window is closed at that candle's close. This is Backtestify's convention, not a rule in the description; if the real strategy holds past the window, say so and it will be tested that way.
- Do not trade if price closes through the zone (dead zone)Not tested
Zone logic not supported.
- Only trade fresh zonesNot tested
Zone logic not supported.
- Do not trade if price is diving into the zone (falling knife)Not tested
Zone logic not supported.
Notes
- Tested on 55 days of 5m candles · 166 trades — the most this feed serves at that resolution.
- Tested on 114 days of 5m candles · 457 trades — the most this feed serves at that resolution.
- Tested on 115 days of 5m candles · 167 trades — the most this feed serves at that resolution.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 2026-06-20 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2026-06-25 (warm-up 600 bars)
- This report was produced before RSI, ATR and ADX were warmed up for Wilder smoothing; its RSI rules started trading on a shorter warm-up, so the first signals and the tested window's start may differ. Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 24 of the 57 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
- This report was produced before win rate and trade counts cover closed trades only; its stored figures counted a position still open at the end of the data as closed (23 wins of 57, 40.4%); over closed trades it is 23 wins of 56, 41.1%; the original on the same window: 37 wins of 160 (23.1%) → 36 wins of 159 (22.6%). This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
Verdict
NOT RECOMMENDEDwin rate · 56 trades, too few to judge
- Ended above the starting budget+3.1% · 0.083R
- Win rate 50% or above41.1%
- More than 50 trades56 trades
- Under 10% of trades on missing bars13 of 193 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 56
- Timeframe
- 5M
- Selection window
- 32 days
- Time in market
- 29.6%
Win rate 41.1%, below 50%
What to watch
- 24 of 57 trades were size-capped at 3× equity
- 13 of 193 trades depend on missing bars
- Removed: do not trade if price closes through the zone (dead zone) — the engine cannot execute it
- Removed: only trade fresh zones — the engine cannot execute it
6 moreShow less
- Removed: do not trade if price is diving into the zone (falling knife) — the engine cannot execute it
- Tested an approximation of your rules
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Too few trades to judge: 56 of the 100 this timeframe needs
- The unseen window was used to choose these rules (improve: the shipped variant was chosen among 2017 candidates measured on this window), so no untouched window is left to check them on
- Chosen from 2018 candidates: not significant after the selection penalty (p 1.000)
What the data supports
Short side held up
+0.337R average trade · 47.8% win rate
short only · 23 of 56 trades
Best entry hours (analysis, not a rule)
+0.655R average trade · 57.1% win rate
entries 00:00–06:00 NY · 14 of 56 trades
Beat buy & hold
+3.1% vs -3.4%
same symbol, same window · 56 closed trades
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.12
all 56 trades
Win rate · original vs improved
Original
Improved
Both measured on the same window. The improved rules were chosen on it.
What changed
6 upgrades applied
Momentum filter
RSI(14) below 65
Volume filter
Volume above 1.5× its 20-candle average
Confirmation filter
Previous candle closed bullish
Removed
Do not trade if price closes through the zone (dead zone) — the engine cannot execute it
Removed
Only trade fresh zones — the engine cannot execute it
Removed
Do not trade if price is diving into the zone (falling knife) — the engine cannot execute it
Profit factor
0.52×Avg per trade
0.26RWin rate
18.43 ppReturn
25.03 ppMax drawdown
16.31 ppTrades
103Evidence window
56 trades
chosen on this window
Best of ≥ 2,018 candidates on this window
Failed
t 0.42 · p 1.000 · best of ≥ 2018 (Bonferroni)
Variations tested
363
2,017 checked on this window
Account balance
Selection window only (14 Sept 2026 – 16 Oct 2026)
$10,000
Starting balance
$7,810
Final · original
$10,291
With the open position marked
$9,665
Buy & hold
- Original
- Improved
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
D
Grade
NOT RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Strategy replay
- EMA 20
- EMA 200
- RSI 14
- Volume
- 1.5× 20-candle average
Entry
4,158.24
Sell · 16 Oct, 14:50 NY · 8 bars
Stop loss
4,168.18
0.24% away
Take profit
4,138.35
0.48% away
Result
-1.08R
Stop loss · -0.78% of equity, size-capped
Trace5 steps
Signal
candle close
4,159.34
16 Oct, 14:45 NY
Filled
next open
4,158.24
16 Oct, 14:50 NY
Stop
N-candle swing
4,168.18
16 Oct, 14:50 NY
TP1 · 2.00R
r multiple
4,138.35
16 Oct, 14:50 NY
Exit · Stop loss · -0.78R
4,168.18
16 Oct, 15:25 NY
Monthly returns
Original beside improved, month by month
- Original
- Improved
Wins and losses
Original
- Wins36
- Losses123
Improved
- Wins23
- Losses33
Improved rules
Changed from the original: Momentum filter: RSI(14) below 65 · Volume filter: volume above 1.5× its 20-candle average · Confirmation filter: previous candle closed bullish · Removed: do not trade if price closes through the zone (dead zone) — the engine cannot execute it · Removed: only trade fresh zones — the engine cannot execute it · Removed: do not trade if price is diving into the zone (falling knife) — the engine cannot execute it
Buys when
close > EMA(20) and close > EMA(200) and the candle opens inside 08:00-21:00 UTC time and RSI(14) < 65 and volume > 1.5× its 20-candle average and previous candle is bullish
Stop
lowest low of the 20 completed candles before the signal candle
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance) · closed at the session end (14 of 57)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 24 of 57 trades were size-capped at 3× equity
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Opposite signal
- Closes the open trade and opens the reverse at the next open
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
56 closed · 1 open at the end of the data, marked at the last close
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | short | 4163.8281 | 4166.6972 | Open |
| 16 Oct 2026 | short | 4158.2382 | 4169.0176 | Loss |
| 16 Oct 2026 | long | 4174.4627 | 4158.2382 | Loss |
| 16 Oct 2026 | short | 4167.8353 | 4174.4627 | Loss |
| 16 Oct 2026 | long | 4179.4467 | 4171.0396 | Loss |
| 15 Oct 2026 | long | 4164.3127 | 4169.7029 | Win |
| 15 Oct 2026 | long | 4149.7888 | 4132.1664 | Loss |
| 14 Oct 2026 | short | 4145.0088 | 4118.6145 | Win |
| 13 Oct 2026 | long | 4189.6238 | 4178.7411 | Loss |
| 13 Oct 2026 | long | 4191.8332 | 4182.7693 | Loss |
Monthly heatmap
Original
P&L of trades closed in the month
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -13.3% | -11.0% | — | — |
Improved
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.5% | -6.7% | — | — |
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