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Free viewBacktest the Tori Trades trendline strategy on BTCUSDT
On the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin it buys when candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line. Stop at the safety trendline, target 2× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
6 notes about this test
- Her shorts (a rising support trendline broken downward) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- Her instruments are XPTUSD, WTI, XAUUSD and US30 on 4H; this test runs on the crypto pair you named, which behaves differently.
- "Nearest horizontal support/resistance giving 2R or more" is approximated as a fixed 2R target.
- The safety trendline is the line through the last two confirmed pivot lows; when those lows are not rising, the lowest low of the last 20 candles is used instead.
- Trendline drawing is mechanical (confirmed 3-bar pivots, tap tolerance 0.15%), not hand-drawn, so individual lines can differ from hers.
- 18 trades: the most these rules produce in 9 years of 4h candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 6 markets123 trades · 44.7% win · +0.34R avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSDT | 18 | 38.9% | +0.15R |
| ETHUSDT | 15 | 40.0% | +0.22R |
| SOLUSDT | 15 | 53.3% | +0.58R |
| BNBUSDT | 15 | 33.3% | +0.03R |
| XRPUSDT | 33 | 57.6% | +0.72R |
| ADAUSDT | 27 | 37.0% | +0.10R |
| All · 4h | 123 | 44.7% | +0.34R |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 1996-10-17 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2017-10-23 (warm-up 405 bars)
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 1 of the 18 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
Verdict
INCONCLUSIVEwin rate · 18 trades, too few to judge
- Ended above the starting budget+2.6% · 0.102R
- Win rate 50% or above38.9%
- More than 50 trades18 trades
- Under 10% of trades on missing bars18 of 18 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 18
- Timeframe
- 4H
- Tested over
- 3281 days
- Time in market
- 3.6%
18 of 18 trades depend on missing bars
What to watch
- 1 of 18 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Too few trades to judge: 18 of the 40 this timeframe needs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Best month
+2.0%
2020-01 · 1 of 18 trades · best of 16 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.22
all 18 trades
Net return
+2.6%
all 18 trades
Average trade
+0.102R
all 18 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:BTCUSDT4HSlippageTrendlineGapped stop
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
- Trendline The script draws a simpler line, through the last two swing points.
- Gapped stop When price gaps past the stop, the backtest skips the trade; the script enters and is stopped out.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$138,571
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
—
Grade
INCONCLUSIVE
Verdict
Strategy replay
- Pattern
- Stop
- TP1
Entry
86,547.31
Buy · 4 Oct, 20:00 NY · 2 bars
Stop loss
85,467.50
1.25% away
Take profit
88,706.92
2.50% away
Result
-1.10R
Stop loss at 85,450.41 · 5 Oct, 00:00 NY
Trace5 steps
Signal
candle close
86,530.00
4 Oct, 16:00 NY
Filled
next open
86,547.31
4 Oct, 20:00 NY
Stop
safety trendline
85,467.50
4 Oct, 20:00 NY
TP1 · 2.00R
r multiple
88,706.92
4 Oct, 20:00 NY
Exit · Stop loss · -1.11R
85,467.50
5 Oct, 00:00 NY
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins7
- Losses11
Your rules
Buys when
candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line
Stop
safety trendline through the last two confirmed pivot lows, measured 5 candles after the signal candle (fallback: lowest low of the 20 candles before the signal candle)
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 1 of 18 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
18 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | long | 86547.3060 | 85450.4065 | Loss |
| 4 Aug 2026 | long | 64137.9650 | 67753.8951 | Win |
| 22 Jun 2026 | long | 64670.1514 | 63343.1188 | Loss |
| 3 May 2026 | long | 78684.0937 | 75308.5853 | Loss |
| 10 Sept 2025 | long | 113876.7608 | 110921.5468 | Loss |
| 8 Sept 2025 | long | 112654.2663 | 111244.3067 | Loss |
| 21 Apr 2025 | long | 87223.0011 | 93769.9633 | Win |
| 19 Apr 2025 | long | 85234.4235 | 84935.7694 | Loss |
| 13 Jul 2023 | long | 31612.3212 | 29994.0200 | Loss |
| 10 Apr 2023 | long | 29178.8846 | 28052.2164 | Loss |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.9% |
| 2019 | — | — | -1.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | open |
| 2020 | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | 1.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% |
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | — | — | — | -1.0% | — | — | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | — | — | — | 1.5% | — | — | — | — | -2.2% | — | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | -1.1% | — | 2.0% | — | -1.1% | — | — |
Advanced Analysis