Backtest the Double 7s strategy on BTCUSDT
On the daily chart of Bitcoin it buys when close > SMA(200) and the close is the lowest close of the last 7 candles. No stop loss, a close that is the highest close of the last 7 candles closes the trade at the next open.
3 notes about this test
- Long side only: the mirror short rules cannot be executed on Spot.
- No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.
- Published for ETFs; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
3 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before open positions were separated from closed trades; its stored win count includes a position still open at the end of the data (+3.1% of equity, marked at the last close). This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
- This report was produced before warm-up at a feed's history limit was counted in valid candles; 200 candles of its tested window were spent warming the indicators up, because the feed's history ended before a full warm-up. Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before win rate and trade counts cover closed trades only; its stored figures counted a position still open at the end of the data as closed (56 wins of 79, 70.9%); over closed trades it is 55 wins of 78, 70.5%. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
70.5%win rate · 78 trades
RECOMMENDEDMixed evidence- Trades
- 78
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 28.6%
high win rate · 79 trades
- Verdict rules v1
What the data supports
Months in profit
72% of months closed up
38 of 53 months in the tested window
Best month
+19.9%
2020-12 · 2 of 78 trades · best of 53 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.84
all 78 trades
Net return
+171.3%
all 78 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
A
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return · closed trades
171.3%
-925.4 pts vs buy & holdClosed trades +171.3% · open position +8.5% unrealized · +179.8% with it marked
Win rate
70.5%
78 trades
Profit factor
1.84
55 wins · 23 losses
Max drawdown
-33.5%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
77,697.54
Buy · 31 Aug 2026 · 5 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
+4.48%
Exit rule at 81,254.12 · 4 Sept 2026
Monthly returns
Best month
19.9%
Worst month
-23.3%
Typical month
4.03%
Months in profit
72%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$27,125
Final · closed trades
$27,979
With the open position marked
$119,668
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins55
- Losses23
Rules
Buys when
close > SMA(200) and the close is the lowest close of the last 7 candles
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close that is the highest close of the last 7 candles closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | — | — | open | 3.0% | -1.8% | 12.6% | -1.0% | 1.8% | -17.3% | — | — |
| 2020 | — | 3.3% | -6.8% | — | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 2.7% | open | 19.9% |
| 2021 | -2.1% | open | 9.4% | 4.4% | 10.5% | -20.9% | — | open | 5.4% | open | 4.0% | -23.3% |
| 2023 | — | 6.7% | 5.0% | -3.6% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | -5.0% | — | — | 12.1% | 5.7% |
| 2024 | 1.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | -8.6% | -4.7% | — | 4.8% | 9.7% | 14.0% |
| 2025 | 4.2% | -1.8% | 2.8% | — | open | 4.1% | 5.1% | 1.3% | -4.6% | -1.7% | -3.8% | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | open | 4.5% | — | — | — |
Latest trades
78 closed · 1 open at the end of the data, marked at the last close
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sept 2026 | long | 78322.0913 | 80867.6932 | Open |
| 31 Aug 2026 | long | 77697.5364 | 81254.1159 | Win |
| 30 Oct 2025 | long | 110043.3043 | 105989.9278 | Loss |
| 11 Oct 2025 | long | 112797.0449 | 110982.6990 | Loss |
| 22 Sept 2025 | long | 115255.3365 | 114289.1076 | Loss |
| 19 Aug 2025 | long | 116250.2954 | 112042.8170 | Loss |
| 1 Aug 2025 | long | 115787.2228 | 117448.5256 | Win |
| 21 Jul 2025 | long | 117288.5630 | 119930.4391 | Win |
| 2 Jul 2025 | long | 105702.2662 | 108827.8201 | Win |
| 15 Jun 2025 | long | 105435.7129 | 105312.8732 | Loss |
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