Backtest the Holy Grail strategy on ETHUSDT
On the 1-hour chart of ETHUSDT, it buys when ADX(14) > 30, ADX(14) is higher than one candle ago, +DI above −DI (14) and candle low touches or crosses below EMA(20). It gets out below the lowest low of the last 5 candles, and takes profit at 2× what it risked. Each trade risks 1% of the account.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
32.5%win rate · 40 trades, too few to judge
NOT RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 40
- Timeframe
- 1H
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 2.9%
Lost money after costs: profit factor 0.89
What the data supports
Best entry hours
+0.182R average trade · 41.7% win rate
18:00–00:00 UTC · 12 of 40 trades
Best month
+2.9%
2026-01 · 2 of 40 trades · best of 30 months
Drawdown stayed shallow
-6.8% deepest fall from peak
all 40 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
D
Grade
NOT RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
-2.8%
-1074.6 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
32.5%
40 trades
Profit factor
0.89
13 wins · 27 losses
Max drawdown
-6.8%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
1,936.44
Buy · 22 Jul, 04:00 · 3 bars
Stop loss
1,916.67
1.02% away
Take profit
1,975.97
2.04% away
Result
-1.12R
Stop loss at 1,916.29
Monthly returns
Best month
2.9%
Worst month
-2.2%
Typical month
-1.02%
Months in profit
37%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$9,717
Final balance
$117,173
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins13
- Losses27
Rules
Buys when
ADX(14) > 30 and ADX(14) is higher than one candle ago and +DI above −DI (14) and candle low touches or crosses below EMA(20)
Stop
lowest low of the 5 completed candles before the signal candle
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.1% | -1.0% | — | — |
| 2019 | -1.0% | 1.9% | — | 1.8% | — | — | — | — | — | -1.1% | -0.4% | — |
| 2020 | -1.0% | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | — | — |
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 0.9% | — | — | 0.2% | -1.1% |
| 2023 | 1.5% | — | — | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | -1.7% | -1.1% | — | -1.2% |
| 2024 | — | -0.2% | — | — | — | -1.1% | -1.1% | 1.9% | — | -1.0% | — | — |
| 2025 | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 2.9% | — | — | — | -1.1% | — | -2.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
Latest trades
40 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | long | 1936.4372 | 1916.2867 | Loss |
| 6 Jul 2026 | long | 1794.4888 | 1768.9361 | Loss |
| 4 May 2026 | long | 2354.4908 | 2308.7782 | Loss |
| 2 Jan 2026 | long | 3109.6218 | 3267.9117 | Win |
| 2 Jan 2026 | long | 3004.2507 | 3037.0047 | Win |
| 11 Jun 2025 | long | 2823.0645 | 2753.4492 | Loss |
| 7 Oct 2024 | long | 2490.7380 | 2415.1669 | Loss |
| 23 Aug 2024 | long | 2680.5060 | 2775.3028 | Win |
| 1 Jul 2024 | long | 3493.8086 | 3452.3094 | Loss |
| 28 Jun 2024 | long | 3473.9046 | 3419.5560 | Loss |
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