Backtestify
BACKTEST EXISTING2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 · 8.0 yearsTested windowETHUSDT (asked for "ETH") · 1h · history 2018-09-02 → 2026-08-31 (2920 days), identical for all timeframes · $10,000 account

Backtest the Holy Grail strategy on ETHUSDT

Rules: Holy Grail (ADX + 20 EMA pullback) · as published tradingsetupsreview.com·swingfolio.com

Win rate

NOT RECOMMENDED

32.5%

40 trades · 1H · 2920 days · Binance

Data through 2026-08-31 00:00 UTC

NOT RECOMMENDEDA fixed set of measured gates decides this. It is not an opinion and not advice.

Not recommended on this evidence

Tested an approximation of your rules — see 'What we actually tested'Part of your description could not be executed exactly, so the verdict is capped.Win rate 32.5% is below 51%Share of closed trades that ended in profit, against the minimum this app requires.Lost money after costs: profit factor 0.84Checks that gross profit covers gross loss by the required margin.

EvidenceWeak evidence

✗ Sample ≥ 100 trades40 trades in 2920 days✗ Unseen sample ≥ 30 trades10 trades✗ Profit factor ≥ 1.30.84✓ Drawdown ≤ 25%6.8%✗ Edge on unseen data > 0-0.186R✗ Edge with doubled costs > 0-0.210R✗ Rules tested exactlyapproximated

ReturnTotal simulated return

-2.8%

Account change over the tested window

Profit factorProfit per loss

0.84

Gross profit ÷ gross loss (above 1 = profitable)

Max drawdownDeepest closed-trade fall

-6.8%

Worst fall from a previous account peak

ReliabilityConfidence in test

50/100

How much this test can be trusted

Unseen-data edgeUnseen-data edge

n/a

Average result per trade on data never optimised on

Asked for "ETH" · tested ETHUSDT

What we actually tested

  • · ADX(14) above 30 and higher than the previous candle, +DI above −DI
  • · The candle low touches or crosses below the 20 EMA
  • · Buy stop above that candle's high, valid 3 candles
  • · Stop below the swing low: the lowest low of the last 5 candles

Buys whenThe exact entry conditions that were executed for long trades.

ADX(14) > 30 and ADX(14) is higher than one candle ago and +DI above −DI (14) and candle low touches or crosses below EMA(20)

StopPosition sizing and stop rules exactly as executed. Nothing was added.

lowest low of the 5 completed candles before the signal candle

Target / exitTarget, trailing and time exits exactly as executed.

2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)

Risk per tradePosition sizing and stop rules exactly as executed. Nothing was added.

1% of equity risked to the stop

One real trade, most recent

One real trade from the tested ledger, drawn on the same candles the engine used.
FROM TESTED HISTORY

ETHUSDT · 1h · actual exchange candles executed by the engine

LONGLOSS · -1.12RStop hit (SL)
Bought at 1,936.44 on 2026-07-22 04:00, stop at 1,916.67, target at 1,975.97. Closed at 1,916.29 on 2026-07-22 06:00 — Stop hit (SL). Result: LOSS (-1.12R)
  • Up candle
  • Down candle
  • Entry price
  • Stop
  • Target
  • Exit price
  • EMA(20)

Entry

1,936.44 · 2026-07-22 04:00

Initial stop

1,916.67

Target

1,975.97

Exit

1,916.29 · 2026-07-22 06:00

Each candle is one 1H bar: the thin line is the high-low range, the thick body is open-to-close. Vertical marks show when the trade opened and closed. One real trade, picked by recency — an illustration of the executed rules, not proof they will work again.

How $10,000 would have changed

The account balance after each closed trade, starting from the stated budget.

Account value after every trade closed, in dollars

  • Account value

Left axis is dollars, bottom axis is time. The line only moves when a trade closes, so flat stretches are periods the rules stayed out of the market.

Simulation on historical candles, not live trading. Full methodology in Pro depth.

This is the free view of a shared report. Run your own strategy on the same engine.

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