Backtest the Holy Grail strategy on BNBUSDT
On the 1-hour chart of BNBUSDT, it buys when ADX(14) > 30, ADX(14) is higher than one candle ago, +DI above −DI (14) and candle low touches or crosses below EMA(20). It gets out below the lowest low of the last 5 candles, and takes profit at 2× what it risked. Each trade risks 1% of the account.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
34.1%win rate · 41 trades, too few to judge
NOT RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 41
- Timeframe
- 1H
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 2.7%
Lost money after costs: profit factor 0.93
What the data supports
Best entry hours
+0.214R average trade · 40.0% win rate
06:00–12:00 UTC · 10 of 41 trades
Best month
+2.0%
2024-06 · 1 of 41 trades · best of 31 months
Drawdown stayed shallow
-7.9% deepest fall from peak
all 41 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
D
Grade
NOT RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
-1.8%
-7497.8 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
34.1%
41 trades
Profit factor
0.93
14 wins · 27 losses
Max drawdown
-7.9%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
738.68
Buy · 11 Sept, 14:00 · 115 bars
Stop loss
706.50
4.36% away
Take profit
803.03
8.71% away
Result
-1.03R
Stop loss at 706.36
Monthly returns
Best month
2.0%
Worst month
-2.5%
Typical month
-0.42%
Months in profit
45%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$9,824
Final balance
$759,608
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins14
- Losses27
Rules
Buys when
ADX(14) > 30 and ADX(14) is higher than one candle ago and +DI above −DI (14) and candle low touches or crosses below EMA(20)
Stop
lowest low of the 5 completed candles before the signal candle
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | — | 0.9% |
| 2019 | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | — | 0.4% | -1.1% | — | — | -1.1% | — |
| 2020 | 1.9% | -2.1% | — | — | — | — | 0.9% | — | — | — | — | 1.0% |
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | -1.1% | 1.9% | — | — | 1.4% | 1.9% | -1.1% |
| 2023 | — | — | -1.0% | — | — | — | -1.1% | -1.0% | -0.4% | 0.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | — | — | 0.8% | -0.3% | — | -2.2% | -2.1% | 1.9% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | -1.1% | -0.8% | -2.5% | — | — | -1.0% | — | — | — |
Latest trades
41 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | long | 738.6777 | 706.3587 | Loss |
| 15 Jun 2026 | long | 617.3634 | 602.6694 | Loss |
| 14 Jun 2026 | long | 610.3320 | 608.3883 | Loss |
| 11 Jun 2026 | long | 606.1212 | 597.0806 | Loss |
| 3 May 2026 | long | 622.1244 | 617.7764 | Loss |
| 16 Apr 2026 | long | 623.3746 | 621.2957 | Loss |
| 15 Apr 2026 | long | 616.7033 | 613.2573 | Loss |
| 8 Aug 2025 | long | 794.9290 | 821.2226 | Win |
| 27 Jul 2025 | long | 816.7633 | 793.1413 | Loss |
| 17 Jul 2025 | long | 722.5645 | 713.8172 | Loss |
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