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Free viewBacktest the Connors RSI(2) strategy on SOLUSDT
On the daily chart of Solana it buys when close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5. No stop loss, a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open.
5 notes about this test
- Short trades (the mirror rules below the 200-day average) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- The published rules use NO stop loss, so R-based statistics are undefined and the position size is a fixed notional, not risk to a stop.
- Connors published this for US equities and ETFs; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.
- Connors reports RSI(2) thresholds of 10, 5 and 2; the book's core table uses 5, which is what is tested.
- 18 trades: the most these rules produce in 4.5 years of 1d candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 5 markets121 trades · 71.1% win · — avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOLUSDT | 18 | 72.2% | — |
| BTCUSDT | 29 | 75.9% | — |
| ETHUSDT | 26 | 65.4% | — |
| BNBUSDT | 24 | 58.3% | — |
| XRPUSDT | 24 | 83.3% | — |
| All · 1d | 121 | 71.1% | — |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 2018-10-18 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2022-04-03 (warm-up 600 bars)
- This report was produced before RSI, ATR and ADX were warmed up for Wilder smoothing; its RSI rules started trading on a shorter warm-up, so the first signals and the tested window's start may differ. Re-run to get corrected results.
Verdict
PROMISINGwin rate · 18 trades, too few to judge
- Ended above the starting budget+17.9% · 0.920%
- Win rate 50% or above72.2%
- More than 50 trades18 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 18
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 1659 days
- Time in market
- 4.8%
high win rate · 18 trades, limited sample
What to watch
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Too few trades to judge: 18 of the 25 this timeframe needs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Beat buy & hold
+17.9% vs -24.4%
same symbol, same window · 18 closed trades
Months in profit
69% of months closed up
11 of 16 months in the tested window
Best month
+17.3%
2025-10 · 1 of 18 trades · best of 16 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.37
all 18 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:SOLUSDT1DPosition sizeSlippage
- Position size TradingView sizes each order on the signal candle's close, so sizes differ slightly from the backtest.
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$7,558
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
PROMISING
Verdict
Strategy replay
- SMA 200
- RSI 2
- SMA 5
Entry
109.64
Buy · 9 Oct 2026 · 4 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
+1.44%
Exit rule at 111.33 · 12 Oct 2026
Trace4 steps
Signal
candle close
109.62
8 Oct 2026
Filled
next open
109.64
9 Oct 2026
No stop
none
9 Oct 2026
Exit · Exit rule
111.35
12 Oct 2026
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins13
- Losses5
Your rules
Buys when
close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
18 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | long | 109.6419 | 111.3277 | Win |
| 31 Oct 2025 | long | 184.7269 | 161.7676 | Loss |
| 12 Oct 2025 | long | 177.6655 | 208.6483 | Win |
| 23 Sept 2025 | long | 220.4341 | 210.7878 | Loss |
| 1 Aug 2025 | long | 172.2544 | 169.5161 | Loss |
| 29 Jan 2025 | long | 227.1054 | 238.2523 | Win |
| 10 Jan 2025 | long | 184.9970 | 187.5325 | Win |
| 22 Dec 2024 | long | 181.4963 | 190.0820 | Win |
| 10 Dec 2024 | long | 216.6633 | 227.2445 | Win |
| 4 Nov 2024 | long | 162.5525 | 166.5967 | Win |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | — | — | — | 3.1% | 1.9% | — | — | — | — | 3.2% | — | — |
| 2024 | 5.7% | 2.1% | — | -7.4% | 8.4% | — | — | -13.9% | — | — | 2.4% | 9.6% |
| 2025 | 6.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.7% | -4.5% | 17.3% | -12.5% | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | — | — |
Advanced Analysis