Backtest the Tori Trades trendline strategy on ADAUSDT
On the 4-hour chart of Cardano it buys when candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line. Stop at the safety trendline, target 2× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
5 notes about this test
- Her shorts (a rising support trendline broken downward) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- Her instruments are XPTUSD, WTI, XAUUSD and US30 on 4H; this test runs on the crypto pair you named, which behaves differently.
- "Nearest horizontal support/resistance giving 2R or more" is approximated as a fixed 2R target.
- The safety trendline is the line through the last two confirmed pivot lows; when those lows are not rising, the lowest low of the last 20 candles is used instead.
- Trendline drawing is mechanical (confirmed 3-bar pivots, tap tolerance 0.15%), not hand-drawn, so individual lines can differ from hers.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
4 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 1 of the 30 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
- This report was produced before limit fills stopped taking slippage in their price, and a re-picked target waits for the script; defect "target filled beyond its limit": its target fills were shown 0.02% short of the target (the P&L effect is commission × slippage, below 0.001% per trade). Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before an entry whose fill gapped past its stop was dropped; a trade whose fill gapped past its stop may be missing from this report; a re-run includes it (usually a small loss at the open). Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before an entry that filled exactly on its stop was dropped; a trade whose fill opened exactly on its stop may be missing from this report; a re-run includes it (about zero before costs). Re-run to get corrected results.
43.3%win rate · 30 trades, too few to judge
RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 30
- Timeframe
- 4H
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 5.0%
steady edge · 30 trades, limited sample
- Verdict rules v1
What to watch
- 1 of 30 trades were size-capped at 1× equity
What the data supports
Best month
+2.0%
2021-08 · 1 of 30 trades · best of 27 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.47
all 30 trades
Net return
+8.7%
all 30 trades
Average trade
+0.251R
all 30 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
8.7%
-161.7 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
43.3%
30 trades
Profit factor
1.47
13 wins · 17 losses
Max drawdown
-5.9%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
0.171934
Buy · 30 Jul, 12:00 NY · 16 bars
Stop loss
0.166209
3.33% away
Take profit
0.183385
6.66% away
Result
+1.96R
Take profit at 0.183348 · 2 Aug, 00:00 NY
Monthly returns
Best month
2.0%
Worst month
-2.1%
Typical month
-0.35%
Months in profit
48%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$10,875
Final balance
$27,043
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins13
- Losses17
Rules
Buys when
candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line
Stop
safety trendline through the last two confirmed pivot lows, measured 5 candles after the signal candle (fallback: lowest low of the 20 candles before the signal candle)
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 1 of 30 trades were size-capped at 1× equity
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 2019 | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | -1.0% | — | — | -1.0% | — | — |
| 2020 | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — |
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | open | 2.0% | — | -1.0% | — | -0.3% |
| 2022 | — | — | — | -1.0% | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | -1.1% | -2.0% | — |
| 2023 | 2.0% | open | 0.9% | — | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -2.1% | open | 2.0% | — | — |
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | open | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | — | — | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | -1.1% | open | 2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Latest trades
30 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | long | 0.1719 | 0.1833 | Win |
| 1 Jun 2026 | long | 0.2369 | 0.2343 | Loss |
| 15 Apr 2026 | long | 0.2489 | 0.2675 | Win |
| 2 Mar 2025 | long | 0.8664 | 0.6959 | Loss |
| 2 May 2024 | long | 0.4532 | 0.4183 | Loss |
| 28 Sept 2023 | long | 0.2494 | 0.2631 | Win |
| 28 Aug 2023 | long | 0.2656 | 0.2575 | Loss |
| 8 Aug 2023 | long | 0.2936 | 0.2817 | Loss |
| 2 Jul 2023 | long | 0.2917 | 0.2798 | Loss |
| 27 May 2023 | long | 0.3668 | 0.3534 | Loss |
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