Backtest the Tori Trades trendline strategy on XRPUSDT
On the 4-hour chart of XRP it buys when candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line. Stop at the safety trendline, target 2× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
5 notes about this test
- Her shorts (a rising support trendline broken downward) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- Her instruments are XPTUSD, WTI, XAUUSD and US30 on 4H; this test runs on the crypto pair you named, which behaves differently.
- "Nearest horizontal support/resistance giving 2R or more" is approximated as a fixed 2R target.
- The safety trendline is the line through the last two confirmed pivot lows; when those lows are not rising, the lowest low of the last 20 candles is used instead.
- Trendline drawing is mechanical (confirmed 3-bar pivots, tap tolerance 0.15%), not hand-drawn, so individual lines can differ from hers.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
4 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 4 of the 34 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
- This report was produced before limit fills stopped taking slippage in their price, and a re-picked target waits for the script; defect "target filled beyond its limit": its target fills were shown 0.02% short of the target (the P&L effect is commission × slippage, below 0.001% per trade). Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before an entry whose fill gapped past its stop was dropped; a trade whose fill gapped past its stop may be missing from this report; a re-run includes it (usually a small loss at the open). Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before an entry that filled exactly on its stop was dropped; a trade whose fill opened exactly on its stop may be missing from this report; a re-run includes it (about zero before costs). Re-run to get corrected results.
61.8%win rate · 34 trades, too few to judge
RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 34
- Timeframe
- 4H
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 3.3%
high win rate · 34 trades, limited sample
- Verdict rules v1
What to watch
- 4 of 34 trades were size-capped at 1× equity
What the data supports
Best entry hours (analysis, not a rule)
+1.357R average trade · 80.0% win rate
entries 00:00–06:00 NY · 10 of 34 trades
Months in profit
67% of months closed up
20 of 30 months in the tested window
Best month
+2.0%
2023-10 · 1 of 34 trades · best of 30 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 3.04
all 34 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
28.5%
-175.7 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
61.8%
34 trades
Profit factor
3.04
21 wins · 13 losses
Max drawdown
-3.0%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
1.0028
Buy · 17 Aug, 00:00 NY · 15 bars
Stop loss
0.986200
1.66% away
Take profit
1.0360
3.31% away
Result
+1.93R
Take profit at 1.0358 · 19 Aug, 08:00 NY
Monthly returns
Best month
2.0%
Worst month
-1.1%
Typical month
1.93%
Months in profit
67%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$12,848
Final balance
$30,418
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins21
- Losses13
Rules
Buys when
candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line
Stop
safety trendline through the last two confirmed pivot lows, measured 5 candles after the signal candle (fallback: lowest low of the 20 candles before the signal candle)
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 4 of 34 trades were size-capped at 1× equity
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% |
| 2019 | — | 0.9% | -1.0% | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | — | — | -0.6% |
| 2020 | -1.0% | — | — | — | -1.1% | — | 1.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.0% |
| 2022 | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | -1.0% | -1.0% | — | — | open | -1.0% |
| 2023 | 2.0% | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | 2.0% | 2.0% | — | 1.9% |
| 2024 | — | 1.9% | — | 2.0% | — | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — |
| 2025 | 2.0% | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | -1.0% | 2.0% | — | — | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | — |
Latest trades
34 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2026 | long | 1.0028 | 1.0358 | Win |
| 13 Apr 2026 | long | 1.3760 | 1.4890 | Win |
| 4 Mar 2026 | long | 1.3993 | 1.3405 | Loss |
| 7 Sept 2025 | long | 2.9008 | 3.0869 | Win |
| 19 Feb 2025 | long | 2.7383 | 2.4688 | Loss |
| 11 Jan 2025 | long | 2.4199 | 2.7281 | Win |
| 4 Nov 2024 | long | 0.5120 | 0.5525 | Win |
| 4 Jun 2024 | long | 0.5216 | 0.5079 | Loss |
| 8 Apr 2024 | long | 0.6018 | 0.6343 | Win |
| 7 Feb 2024 | long | 0.5093 | 0.5284 | Win |
This is the free view of a shared report. Run your own strategy on the same engine.
Backtest a strategy