Shared report
Free viewBacktest the Tori Trades trendline strategy on XRPUSDT
On the 4-hour chart of XRP it buys when candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line. Stop at the safety trendline, target 2× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
6 notes about this test
- Her shorts (a rising support trendline broken downward) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- Her instruments are XPTUSD, WTI, XAUUSD and US30 on 4H; this test runs on the crypto pair you named, which behaves differently.
- "Nearest horizontal support/resistance giving 2R or more" is approximated as a fixed 2R target.
- The safety trendline is the line through the last two confirmed pivot lows; when those lows are not rising, the lowest low of the last 20 candles is used instead.
- Trendline drawing is mechanical (confirmed 3-bar pivots, tap tolerance 0.15%), not hand-drawn, so individual lines can differ from hers.
- 34 trades: the most these rules produce in 8.3 years of 4h candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 6 markets122 trades · 45.1% win · +0.35R avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRPUSDT | 34 | 58.8% | +0.75R |
| BTCUSDT | 16 | 37.5% | +0.12R |
| ETHUSDT | 15 | 40.0% | +0.22R |
| SOLUSDT | 15 | 53.3% | +0.58R |
| BNBUSDT | 15 | 33.3% | +0.03R |
| ADAUSDT | 27 | 37.0% | +0.10R |
| All · 4h | 122 | 45.1% | +0.35R |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 1996-10-17 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2018-07-11 (warm-up 405 bars)
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 4 of the 34 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
Verdict
INCONCLUSIVEwin rate · 34 trades, too few to judge
- Ended above the starting budget+28.6% · 0.733R
- Win rate 50% or above58.8%
- More than 50 trades34 trades
- Under 10% of trades on missing bars34 of 34 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 34
- Timeframe
- 4H
- Tested over
- 3021 days
- Time in market
- 3.0%
34 of 34 trades depend on missing bars
What to watch
- 4 of 34 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Too few trades to judge: 34 of the 40 this timeframe needs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Best entry hours (analysis, not a rule)
+1.358R average trade · 80.0% win rate
entries 00:00–06:00 NY · 10 of 34 trades
Months in profit
67% of months closed up
20 of 30 months in the tested window
Best month
+2.0%
2022-03 · 1 of 34 trades · best of 30 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 3.03
all 34 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:XRPUSDT4HSlippageTrendlineGapped stop
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
- Trendline The script draws a simpler line, through the last two swing points.
- Gapped stop When price gaps past the stop, the backtest skips the trade; the script enters and is stopped out.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$28,910
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
—
Grade
INCONCLUSIVE
Verdict
Strategy replay
- Pattern
- Stop
- TP1
Entry
1.0028
Buy · 17 Aug, 00:00 NY · 15 bars
Stop loss
0.986200
1.66% away
Take profit
1.0360
3.31% away
Result
+1.93R
Take profit at 1.0360 · 19 Aug, 08:00 NY
Trace5 steps
Signal
candle close
1.0026
16 Aug, 20:00 NY
Filled
next open
1.0028
17 Aug, 00:00 NY
Stop
safety trendline
0.986200
17 Aug, 00:00 NY
TP1 · 2.00R
r multiple
1.0360
17 Aug, 00:00 NY
Exit · Take profit · 1.95R
1.0360
19 Aug, 08:00 NY
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins20
- Losses14
Your rules
Buys when
candle closes past a resistance trendline with 3+ taps at least 6 candles apart, spanning 126+ candles (tap tolerance 0.15%), one attempt per line
Stop
safety trendline through the last two confirmed pivot lows, measured 5 candles after the signal candle (fallback: lowest low of the 20 candles before the signal candle)
Target / exit
2R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 4 of 34 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
34 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2026 | long | 1.0028 | 1.0360 | Win |
| 13 Apr 2026 | long | 1.3760 | 1.4893 | Win |
| 4 Mar 2026 | long | 1.3993 | 1.3405 | Loss |
| 7 Sept 2025 | long | 2.9008 | 3.0875 | Win |
| 19 Feb 2025 | long | 2.7383 | 2.4688 | Loss |
| 11 Jan 2025 | long | 2.4199 | 2.7287 | Win |
| 4 Nov 2024 | long | 0.5120 | 0.5526 | Win |
| 4 Jun 2024 | long | 0.5216 | 0.5079 | Loss |
| 8 Apr 2024 | long | 0.6018 | 0.6345 | Win |
| 7 Feb 2024 | long | 0.5093 | 0.5285 | Win |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% |
| 2019 | — | 0.9% | -1.1% | 2.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.2% | — | — | -0.6% |
| 2020 | -1.1% | — | — | — | -1.1% | — | 1.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.9% | — | — | — | — | 2.0% |
| 2022 | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | -1.1% | -1.0% | — | — | open | -1.0% |
| 2023 | 2.0% | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — | 2.0% | 2.0% | — | 2.0% |
| 2024 | — | 2.0% | — | 2.0% | — | -1.1% | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — |
| 2025 | 2.0% | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | -1.0% | 2.0% | — | — | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Analysis