Backtest the Connors RSI(2) strategy on BTCUSDT
On the daily chart of Bitcoin it buys when close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5. No stop loss, a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open.
4 notes about this test
- Short trades (the mirror rules below the 200-day average) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- The published rules use NO stop loss, so R-based statistics are undefined and the position size is a fixed notional, not risk to a stop.
- Connors published this for US equities and ETFs; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.
- Connors reports RSI(2) thresholds of 10, 5 and 2; the book's core table uses 5, which is what is tested.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
2 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before RSI, ATR and ADX were warmed up for Wilder smoothing; its RSI rules started trading on a shorter warm-up, so the first signals and the tested window's start may differ. Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before warm-up at a feed's history limit was counted in valid candles; 200 candles of its tested window were spent warming the indicators up, because the feed's history ended before a full warm-up. Re-run to get corrected results.
74.2%win rate · 31 trades
RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 31
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 5.3%
high win rate · 31 trades
- Verdict rules v1
What the data supports
Months in profit
76% of months closed up
19 of 25 months in the tested window
Best month
+11.5%
2021-03 · 2 of 31 trades · best of 25 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 2.03
all 31 trades
Net return
+44.9%
all 31 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
44.9%
-1051.8 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
74.2%
31 trades
Profit factor
2.03
23 wins · 8 losses
Max drawdown
-20.4%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
76,584.04
Buy · 11 Sept 2026 · 5 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
+1.97%
Exit rule at 78,173.56 · 15 Sept 2026
Monthly returns
Best month
11.5%
Worst month
-17.1%
Typical month
2.10%
Months in profit
76%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$14,490
Final balance
$119,668
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins23
- Losses8
Rules
Buys when
close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.4% | open | -2.6% | — | — |
| 2020 | — | open | 1.3% | — | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 4.4% | — | 11.5% | -4.0% | -17.1% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.8% | 7.3% |
| 2023 | — | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | 0.6% | 4.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 5.6% | — | — | — | 7.6% | -5.2% | — | — | — | — | 2.1% | 3.5% |
| 2025 | — | open | -6.1% | — | open | 8.5% | — | 2.7% | -0.6% | 3.9% | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | — | — | — |
Latest trades
31 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | long | 76584.0437 | 78173.5622 | Win |
| 12 Oct 2025 | long | 110666.5289 | 115142.9668 | Win |
| 23 Sept 2025 | long | 112673.5202 | 112141.5272 | Loss |
| 20 Aug 2025 | long | 112895.5246 | 116912.6128 | Win |
| 1 Aug 2025 | long | 115787.2228 | 115032.0190 | Loss |
| 22 Jun 2025 | long | 102140.4440 | 105312.8732 | Win |
| 6 Jun 2025 | long | 101528.9917 | 105531.0396 | Win |
| 31 May 2025 | long | 104006.2671 | 105621.8014 | Win |
| 25 Feb 2025 | long | 91571.1906 | 86047.3271 | Loss |
| 23 Dec 2024 | long | 95205.3173 | 98643.8473 | Win |
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