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Free viewBacktest the Connors RSI(2) strategy on BTCUSDT
On the daily chart of Bitcoin it buys when close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5. No stop loss, a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open.
5 notes about this test
- Short trades (the mirror rules below the 200-day average) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- The published rules use NO stop loss, so R-based statistics are undefined and the position size is a fixed notional, not risk to a stop.
- Connors published this for US equities and ETFs; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.
- Connors reports RSI(2) thresholds of 10, 5 and 2; the book's core table uses 5, which is what is tested.
- 32 trades: the most these rules produce in 7.5 years of 1d candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 4 markets100 trades · 68.0% win · — avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSDT | 32 | 75.0% | — |
| ETHUSDT | 26 | 65.4% | — |
| SOLUSDT | 18 | 72.2% | — |
| BNBUSDT | 24 | 58.3% | — |
| All · 1d | 100 | 68.0% | — |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 1996-10-17 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2019-04-09 (warm-up 600 bars)
- This report was produced before RSI, ATR and ADX were warmed up for Wilder smoothing; its RSI rules started trading on a shorter warm-up, so the first signals and the tested window's start may differ. Re-run to get corrected results.
Verdict
PROMISINGwin rate · 32 trades
- Ended above the starting budget+48.3% · 1.239%
- Win rate 50% or above75.0%
- More than 50 trades32 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 32
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2749 days
- Time in market
- 5.4%
high win rate · 32 trades, limited sample
What to watch
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Months in profit
77% of months closed up
20 of 26 months in the tested window
Best month
+11.5%
2021-03 · 2 of 32 trades · best of 26 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 2.10
all 32 trades
Net return
+48.3%
all 32 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:BTCUSDT1DPosition sizeSlippage
- Position size TradingView sizes each order on the signal candle's close, so sizes differ slightly from the backtest.
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$158,235
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
PROMISING
Verdict
Strategy replay
- SMA 200
- RSI 2
- SMA 5
Entry
81,770.81
Buy · 9 Oct 2026 · 4 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
+2.33%
Exit rule at 83,756.37 · 12 Oct 2026
Trace4 steps
Signal
candle close
81,754.45
8 Oct 2026
Filled
next open
81,770.81
9 Oct 2026
No stop
none
9 Oct 2026
Exit · Exit rule
83,773.12
12 Oct 2026
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins24
- Losses8
Your rules
Buys when
close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
32 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | long | 81770.8109 | 83756.3654 | Win |
| 11 Sept 2026 | long | 76584.0437 | 78173.5622 | Win |
| 12 Oct 2025 | long | 110666.5289 | 115142.9668 | Win |
| 23 Sept 2025 | long | 112673.5202 | 112141.5272 | Loss |
| 20 Aug 2025 | long | 112895.5246 | 116912.6128 | Win |
| 1 Aug 2025 | long | 115787.2228 | 115032.0190 | Loss |
| 22 Jun 2025 | long | 102140.4440 | 105312.8732 | Win |
| 6 Jun 2025 | long | 101528.9917 | 105531.0396 | Win |
| 31 May 2025 | long | 104006.2671 | 105621.8014 | Win |
| 25 Feb 2025 | long | 91571.1906 | 86047.3271 | Loss |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.4% | open | -2.6% | — | — |
| 2020 | — | open | 1.3% | — | — | 1.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 4.4% | — | 11.5% | -4.0% | -17.1% | — | — | — | — | — | 4.8% | 7.3% |
| 2023 | — | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | 0.6% | 4.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 5.6% | — | — | — | 7.6% | -5.2% | — | — | — | — | 2.1% | 3.5% |
| 2025 | — | open | -6.1% | — | open | 8.5% | — | 2.7% | -0.6% | 3.9% | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 2.3% | — | — |
Advanced Analysis