Shared report
Free viewBacktest the Steven Hart 50 EMA pullback strategy on BTCUSDT
On the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin it buys when close > EMA(50), the candle low touches or crosses below EMA(50), previous candle is bearish and a bullish engulfing or hammer prints. Stop beyond the 5-candle swing, target 1× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
4 notes about this test
- These are the free third-party codification of his pullback rules (Zen & The Art of Trading), not his paid course; the exact thresholds tested are stated above.
- Long side only: the mirror short setup cannot be executed on Spot.
- He selects targets discretionarily at structure; a fixed 1R target is used instead.
- "At least two bearish candles" is applied as the single candle before the entry candle being bearish, which is what the engine can read without look-ahead.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 2018-10-18 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2018-10-18 (warm-up 150 bars)
- This report was produced before RSI, ATR and ADX were warmed up for Wilder smoothing; its ATR rules started trading on a shorter warm-up, so the first signals and the tested window's start may differ. Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before R was measured in stop distances; 1 of the 186 stored trades were size-capped, so the R figures first shown for them (average trade, winners, losers) were % of equity per 1% risk, not stop distances. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
Verdict
RECOMMENDEDwin rate · 186 trades
- Ended above the starting budget+0.4% · 0.007R
- Win rate 50% or above52.2%
- More than 50 trades186 trades
- Under 10% of trades on missing bars3 of 186 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 186
- Timeframe
- 4H
- Tested over
- 2922 days
- Time in market
- 26.6%
high win rate · 186 trades
What to watch
- 1 of 186 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- 3 of 186 trades depend on missing bars
- Thin margin · profit factor 1.00, under the 1.1 we look for
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
1 moreShow less
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Best entry hours (analysis, not a rule)
+0.204R average trade · 62.0% win rate
entries 06:00–12:00 NY · 50 of 186 trades
Best month
+3.0%
2019-05 · 3 of 186 trades · best of 92 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.00
all 186 trades
Net return
+0.4%
all 186 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:BTCUSDT4HSlippageGapped stop
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
- Gapped stop When price gaps past the stop, the backtest skips the trade; the script enters and is stopped out.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$120,526
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
A
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Strategy replay
- EMA 50
Entry
83,716.75
Buy · 14 Oct, 00:00 NY · 3 bars
Stop loss
82,185.81
1.83% away
Take profit
85,247.69
1.83% away
Result
-1.06R
Stop loss at 82,169.37 · 14 Oct, 08:00 NY
Trace5 steps
Signal
candle close
83,700.01
13 Oct, 20:00 NY
Filled
next open
83,716.75
14 Oct, 00:00 NY
Stop
N-candle swing
82,185.81
14 Oct, 00:00 NY
TP1 · 1.00R
r multiple
85,247.69
14 Oct, 00:00 NY
Exit · Stop loss · -1.08R
82,185.81
14 Oct, 08:00 NY
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins97
- Losses89
Your rules
Buys when
close > EMA(50) and the candle low touches or crosses below EMA(50) and previous candle is bearish and the signal candle is a bullish reversal candle (bullish engulfing, or a hammer with a lower wick at least twice its body and the close in the top third)
Stop
lowest low of the 5 completed candles before the signal candle minus 1 × ATR(14)
Target / exit
1R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop · 1 of 186 trades were size-capped at 1.0× equity
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
186 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | long | 83716.7500 | 82169.3680 | Loss |
| 11 Oct 2026 | long | 83789.8746 | 82208.8380 | Loss |
| 29 Sept 2026 | long | 83997.7662 | 86272.9584 | Win |
| 18 Sept 2026 | long | 77398.9467 | 79657.0127 | Win |
| 14 Sept 2026 | long | 78593.7356 | 75654.5507 | Loss |
| 3 Sept 2026 | long | 77723.5516 | 80030.4386 | Win |
| 29 Jul 2026 | long | 64573.9222 | 67036.3526 | Win |
| 26 Jul 2026 | long | 65413.0800 | 63828.2947 | Loss |
| 23 Jul 2026 | long | 65111.9998 | 64060.6483 | Loss |
| 20 Jul 2026 | long | 65015.0004 | 66920.7337 | Win |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% |
| 2019 | -1.1% | — | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | -1.0% | 0.0% | open | -1.0% | -1.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 2020 | 0.9% | -0.1% | -1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 2021 | -1.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -3.0% | -1.0% | -1.2% | 0.0% | 2.0% | -0.1% | -1.0% |
| 2022 | -2.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | -0.1% | -2.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 1.0% | -0.1% | -2.1% | -1.1% |
| 2023 | 0.9% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | -2.1% | -2.1% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -3.1% |
| 2024 | 3.0% | 0.9% | — | -1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 2.0% |
| 2025 | 1.0% | -2.2% | -0.1% | 1.9% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% | -2.1% | -0.1% |
| 2026 | 0.8% | -3.1% | -0.1% | 1.9% | -0.2% | -1.1% | -0.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | -1.2% | — | — |
Advanced Analysis