Backtest the Steven Hart 50 EMA pullback strategy on BTCUSDT
On the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin it buys when close > EMA(50), the candle low touches or crosses below EMA(50), previous candle is bearish and a bullish engulfing or hammer prints. Stop beyond the 5-candle swing, target 1× risk, 1% of the account per trade.
4 notes about this test
- These are the free third-party codification of his pullback rules (Zen & The Art of Trading), not his paid course; the exact thresholds tested are stated above.
- Long side only: the mirror short setup cannot be executed on Spot.
- He selects targets discretionarily at structure; a fixed 1R target is used instead.
- "At least two bearish candles" is applied as the single candle before the entry candle being bearish, which is what the engine can read without look-ahead.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
4 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before RSI, ATR and ADX were warmed up for Wilder smoothing; its ATR rules started trading on a shorter warm-up, so the first signals and the tested window's start may differ. Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before limit fills stopped taking slippage in their price, and a re-picked target waits for the script; defect "target filled beyond its limit": its target fills were shown 0.02% short of the target (the P&L effect is commission × slippage, below 0.001% per trade). Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before an entry whose fill gapped past its stop was dropped; a trade whose fill gapped past its stop may be missing from this report; a re-run includes it (usually a small loss at the open). Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before an entry that filled exactly on its stop was dropped; a trade whose fill opened exactly on its stop may be missing from this report; a re-run includes it (about zero before costs). Re-run to get corrected results.
52.2%win rate · 186 trades
RECOMMENDEDMixed evidence- Trades
- 186
- Timeframe
- 4H
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 26.6%
high win rate · 186 trades
- Verdict rules v1
What to watch
- Thin margin · profit factor 1.00, under the 1.1 we look for
What the data supports
Best entry hours (analysis, not a rule)
+0.204R average trade · 62.0% win rate
entries 06:00–12:00 NY · 50 of 186 trades
Best month
+3.0%
2019-05 · 3 of 186 trades · best of 92 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.00
all 186 trades
Net return
+0.4%
all 186 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
A
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
0.4%
-1133.6 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
52.2%
186 trades
Profit factor
1.00
97 wins · 89 losses
Max drawdown
-15.1%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
77,398.95
Buy · 18 Sept, 00:00 NY · 3 bars
Stop loss
75,140.88
2.92% away
Take profit
79,657.01
2.92% away
Result
+0.96R
Take profit at 79,641.08 · 18 Sept, 08:00 NY
Monthly returns
Best month
3.0%
Worst month
-3.1%
Typical month
-0.07%
Months in profit
39%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$10,043
Final balance
$123,398
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins97
- Losses89
Rules
Buys when
close > EMA(50) and the candle low touches or crosses below EMA(50) and previous candle is bearish and the signal candle is a bullish reversal candle (bullish engulfing, or a hammer with a lower wick at least twice its body and the close in the top third)
Stop
lowest low of the 5 completed candles before the signal candle minus 1 × ATR(14)
Target / exit
1R (R = entry-to-stop distance)
Risk per trade
1% of equity risked to the stop
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.2% | — | 1.0% |
| 2019 | -1.1% | — | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | -1.0% | 0.0% | open | -1.0% | -1.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 2020 | 0.9% | -0.1% | -1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 2021 | -1.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -3.0% | -1.0% | -1.2% | 0.0% | 2.0% | -0.1% | -1.0% |
| 2022 | -2.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | -0.1% | -2.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 1.0% | -0.1% | -2.1% | -1.1% |
| 2023 | 0.9% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | -2.0% | -2.1% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -3.1% |
| 2024 | 2.9% | 0.9% | — | -1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 2.0% |
| 2025 | 1.0% | -2.1% | -0.1% | 1.9% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% | -2.1% | -0.1% |
| 2026 | 0.8% | -3.1% | -0.1% | 1.9% | -0.2% | -1.1% | -0.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | — | — | — |
Latest trades
186 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sept 2026 | long | 77398.9467 | 79641.0813 | Win |
| 14 Sept 2026 | long | 78593.7356 | 75654.5507 | Loss |
| 3 Sept 2026 | long | 77723.5516 | 80014.4325 | Win |
| 29 Jul 2026 | long | 64573.9222 | 67022.9453 | Win |
| 26 Jul 2026 | long | 65413.0800 | 63828.2947 | Loss |
| 23 Jul 2026 | long | 65111.9998 | 64060.6483 | Loss |
| 20 Jul 2026 | long | 65015.0004 | 66907.3495 | Win |
| 2 Jul 2026 | long | 61370.2716 | 65403.6196 | Win |
| 20 Jun 2026 | long | 64310.8696 | 62429.5057 | Loss |
| 17 Jun 2026 | long | 65765.1404 | 63733.4940 | Loss |
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