Backtest the Double 7s strategy on ETHUSDT
On the daily chart of Ethereum it buys when close > SMA(200) and the close is the lowest close of the last 7 candles. No stop loss, a close that is the highest close of the last 7 candles closes the trade at the next open.
3 notes about this test
- Long side only: the mirror short rules cannot be executed on Spot.
- No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.
- Published for ETFs; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
3 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before open positions were separated from closed trades; its stored win count includes a position still open at the end of the data (+8.8% of equity, marked at the last close). This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
- This report was produced before warm-up at a feed's history limit was counted in valid candles; 200 candles of its tested window were spent warming the indicators up, because the feed's history ended before a full warm-up. Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before win rate and trade counts cover closed trades only; its stored figures counted a position still open at the end of the data as closed (48 wins of 75, 64.0%); over closed trades it is 47 wins of 74, 63.5%. This page now shows the corrected reading; the stored original is unchanged. Re-run to get a report produced with the fix.
63.5%win rate · 74 trades
RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 74
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 29.8%
high win rate · 75 trades
- Verdict rules v1
What to watch
- Thin margin · profit factor 1.09, under the 1.1 we look for
- Deep drawdown · 54.8%, past the 40% we look for
What the data supports
Months in profit
60% of months closed up
30 of 50 months in the tested window
Best month
+59.1%
2020-12 · 3 of 74 trades · best of 50 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.07
all 74 trades
Net return
+33.2%
all 74 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
B
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return · closed trades
33.2%
-921.3 pts vs buy & holdClosed trades +33.2% · open position +11.7% unrealized · +44.8% with it marked
Win rate
63.5%
74 trades
Profit factor
1.07
47 wins · 27 losses
Max drawdown
-54.8%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
2,398.74
Buy · 16 Sept 2026 · 3 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
+8.77%Open
Still open · marked at the last close 2,611.62
Monthly returns
Best month
59.1%
Worst month
-35.4%
Typical month
2.55%
Months in profit
60%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$13,315
Final · closed trades
$14,483
With the open position marked
$105,443
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins47
- Losses27
Rules
Buys when
close > SMA(200) and the close is the lowest close of the last 7 candles
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close that is the highest close of the last 7 candles closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | — | — | 5.5% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | -17.4% | -15.2% | — | — | — |
| 2020 | — | open | -35.4% | — | 0.7% | 5.3% | 12.2% | 17.6% | 2.7% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 59.1% |
| 2021 | 41.6% | open | 0.1% | 27.0% | -21.0% | -19.7% | -5.8% | 10.1% | 16.3% | 21.2% | -2.3% | -0.3% |
| 2022 | -33.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | — | 8.2% | 8.6% | -1.4% | 9.0% | -1.2% | 14.5% | -7.3% | — | — | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| 2024 | -0.8% | — | -4.2% | 13.7% | 2.4% | open | -15.8% | -18.5% | — | — | — | 4.9% |
| 2025 | 3.6% | -15.4% | — | — | — | — | — | 18.1% | -6.2% | -4.9% | -20.6% | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | open | 6.8% | — | — | — |
Latest trades
74 closed · 1 open at the end of the data, marked at the last close
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sept 2026 | long | 2398.7397 | 2611.6176 | Open |
| 11 Sept 2026 | long | 2438.7577 | 2515.9367 | Win |
| 31 Aug 2026 | long | 2417.3734 | 2506.9985 | Win |
| 31 Oct 2025 | long | 3805.7110 | 3025.9547 | Loss |
| 10 Oct 2025 | long | 4368.9636 | 4157.6283 | Loss |
| 20 Sept 2025 | long | 4469.4837 | 4214.2270 | Loss |
| 30 Aug 2025 | long | 4361.0520 | 4348.4601 | Loss |
| 19 Aug 2025 | long | 4313.8526 | 4831.1036 | Win |
| 1 Aug 2025 | long | 3699.1297 | 3909.5179 | Win |
| 27 Jan 2025 | long | 3233.2565 | 2737.7223 | Loss |
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