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Free viewBacktest the Double 7s strategy on ETHUSDT
On the daily chart of Ethereum it buys when close > SMA(200) and the close is the lowest close of the last 7 candles. No stop loss, a close that is the highest close of the last 7 candles closes the trade at the next open.
4 notes about this test
- Long side only: the mirror short rules cannot be executed on Spot.
- No stop loss is published, so R-based statistics are undefined and sizing is a fixed notional.
- Published for ETFs; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.
- 76 trades: the most these rules produce in 7.5 years of 1d candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 2 markets146 trades · 68.5% win · — avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT | 76 | 64.5% | — |
| BTCUSDT | 70 | 72.9% | — |
| All · 1d | 146 | 68.5% | — |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 1996-10-17 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2019-04-09 (warm-up 600 bars)
Verdict
RECOMMENDEDwin rate · 76 trades
- Ended above the starting budget+46.2% · 0.501%
- Win rate 50% or above64.5%
- More than 50 trades76 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 76
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2749 days
- Time in market
- 30.0%
high win rate · 76 trades
What to watch
- Thin margin · profit factor 1.10, under the 1.1 we look for
- Deep drawdown · 54.8%, past the 40% we look for
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Months in profit
61% of months closed up
31 of 51 months in the tested window
Best month
+59.1%
2020-12 · 3 of 76 trades · best of 51 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 1.10
all 76 trades
Net return
+46.2%
all 76 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:ETHUSDT1DPosition sizeSlippage
- Position size TradingView sizes each order on the signal candle's close, so sizes differ slightly from the backtest.
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$13,624
With the open position marked
$137,619
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
B
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Strategy replay
- SMA 200
Entry
2,678.52
Buy · 30 Sept 2026 · 3 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
+0.92%
Exit rule at 2,705.89 · 2 Oct 2026
Trace4 steps
Signal
candle close
2,677.98
29 Sept 2026
Filled
next open
2,678.52
30 Sept 2026
No stop
none
30 Sept 2026
Exit · Exit rule
2,706.43
2 Oct 2026
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins49
- Losses27
Your rules
Buys when
close > SMA(200) and the close is the lowest close of the last 7 candles
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close that is the highest close of the last 7 candles closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
76 closed trades · 1 open at the end of the data, marked at the last close
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sept 2026 | long | 2678.5156 | 2705.8887 | Win |
| 16 Sept 2026 | long | 2398.7397 | 2611.6176 | Win |
| 11 Sept 2026 | long | 2438.7577 | 2515.9367 | Win |
| 31 Aug 2026 | long | 2417.3734 | 2506.9985 | Win |
| 31 Oct 2025 | long | 3805.7110 | 3025.9547 | Loss |
| 10 Oct 2025 | long | 4368.9636 | 4157.6283 | Loss |
| 20 Sept 2025 | long | 4469.4837 | 4214.2270 | Loss |
| 30 Aug 2025 | long | 4361.0520 | 4348.4601 | Loss |
| 19 Aug 2025 | long | 4313.8526 | 4831.1036 | Win |
| 1 Aug 2025 | long | 3699.1297 | 3909.5179 | Win |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | — | — | 5.5% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | -17.4% | -15.2% | — | — | — |
| 2020 | — | open | -35.4% | — | 0.7% | 5.3% | 12.2% | 17.6% | 2.7% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 59.1% |
| 2021 | 41.6% | open | 0.1% | 27.0% | -21.0% | -19.7% | -5.8% | 10.1% | 16.3% | 21.2% | -2.3% | -0.3% |
| 2022 | -33.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | — | 8.2% | 8.6% | -1.4% | 9.0% | -1.2% | 14.5% | -7.3% | — | — | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| 2024 | -0.8% | — | -4.2% | 13.7% | 2.4% | open | -15.8% | -18.5% | — | — | — | 4.9% |
| 2025 | 3.6% | -15.4% | — | — | — | — | — | 18.1% | -6.2% | -4.9% | -20.6% | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | open | 16.1% | 0.9% | — | — |
Advanced Analysis