Backtest

Backtest the Turtle Trading System on BTCUSDT

On the daily chart of BTCUSDT, it buys when close breaks above the 20-candle range. It gets out if price moves 2× the average candle range (ATR 20) against the trade, and lets the exit rule close the trade. Each trade risks 1% of the account.

Market

BitcoinBTC

Timeframe

1D

Account

$10,000

History

8.0 years
21 Sept 201819 Sept 2026
RulesTurtle Trading. System 1 (long side)As publishedtradingblox.comnewtraderu.com

45.0%win rate · 40 trades

RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence
Trades
40
Timeframe
1D
Tested over
2920 days
Time in market
44.0%

large winners · 40 trades

What the data supports

  • Best month

    +60.6%

    2021-03 · 1 of 40 trades · best of 37 months

  • Made money after costs

    profit factor 4.86

    all 40 trades

  • Net return

    +134.0%

    all 40 trades

  • Average trade

    +2.508R

    all 40 trades

Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.

67Weak evidence

B

Grade

RECOMMENDED

Verdict

Net return

134.0%

-962.6 pts vs buy & hold

Win rate

45.0%

40 trades

Profit factor

4.86

18 wins · 22 losses

Max drawdown

-5.8%

from peak

Strategy replay

BTCUSDT · 1dTrade 20 / 20

Entry

65,057.00

Buy · 15 Jul 2026 · 64 bars

Stop loss

60,867.17

6.44% away

Take profit

None

Exits on its rule

Result

+2.51R

Exit rule at 75,629.35

Monthly returns

Best month

60.6%

Worst month

-1.7%

Typical month

-0.21%

Months in profit

46%

Account curve

$10,000

Starting balance

$23,405

Final balance

$119,668

Buy & hold

Wins and losses

45%win rate
  • Wins18
  • Losses22

Rules

  • Buys when

    close breaks above the 20-candle range

  • Stop

    2 × ATR(20) from entry

  • Target / exit

    Rule exit · a close below the 10-candle low closes the trade at the next open

  • Risk per trade

    1% of equity risked to the stop

Monthly heatmap

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
201915.4%0.8%-1.0%-0.5%
20202.6%1.2%-1.0%3.8%
202160.6%-1.0%1.9%1.3%-1.0%
2022-0.8%-0.2%-0.9%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%
20235.6%1.2%0.4%-1.0%
20244.2%6.0%0.0%-1.7%-0.2%
20256.9%1.5%-0.7%-0.8%-1.0%
2026-0.6%-0.7%0.7%2.5%

Latest trades

40 closed trades

DateDirectionEntry priceExit priceResult
15 Jul 2026long65056.998875629.3511Win
14 Apr 2026long74432.883678132.4204Win
5 Mar 2026long72681.303467845.4282Loss
5 Jan 2026long91548.045988409.9745Loss
2 Oct 2025long118618.7090113518.9193Loss
17 Sept 2025long116812.3178112628.4598Loss
14 Aug 2025long123331.1013117701.3096Loss
10 Jul 2025long111256.2468113275.2604Win
23 Apr 2025long93461.6786103964.6729Win
16 Oct 2024long67087.554897681.0499Win

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