Backtest the Connors RSI(2) strategy on ETHUSDT
On the daily chart of Ethereum it buys when close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5. No stop loss, a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open.
4 notes about this test
- Short trades (the mirror rules below the 200-day average) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- The published rules use NO stop loss, so R-based statistics are undefined and the position size is a fixed notional, not risk to a stop.
- Connors published this for US equities and ETFs; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.
- Connors reports RSI(2) thresholds of 10, 5 and 2; the book's core table uses 5, which is what is tested.
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
2 fixes since this report
- This report was produced before RSI, ATR and ADX were warmed up for Wilder smoothing; its RSI rules started trading on a shorter warm-up, so the first signals and the tested window's start may differ. Re-run to get corrected results.
- This report was produced before warm-up at a feed's history limit was counted in valid candles; 200 candles of its tested window were spent warming the indicators up, because the feed's history ended before a full warm-up. Re-run to get corrected results.
69.0%win rate · 29 trades
RECOMMENDEDWeak evidence- Trades
- 29
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2920 days
- Time in market
- 5.2%
high win rate · 29 trades
- Verdict rules v1
What the data supports
Months in profit
72% of months closed up
18 of 25 months in the tested window
Best month
+12.8%
2025-01 · 2 of 29 trades · best of 25 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 2.80
all 29 trades
Net return
+58.9%
all 29 trades
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
RECOMMENDED
Verdict
Net return
58.9%
-895.6 pts vs buy & hold
Win rate
69.0%
29 trades
Profit factor
2.80
20 wins · 9 losses
Max drawdown
-9.5%
from peak
Strategy replay
Entry
3,830.49
Buy · 11 Oct 2025 · 3 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
+8.28%
Exit rule at 4,151.46 · 13 Oct 2025
Monthly returns
Best month
12.8%
Worst month
-8.6%
Typical month
2.40%
Months in profit
72%
Account curve
$10,000
Starting balance
$15,887
Final balance
$105,443
Buy & hold
Wins and losses
- Wins20
- Losses9
Rules
Buys when
close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | — | — | open | 4.5% | 6.6% | -0.2% | 4.7% | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | — | — | 2.4% | — | — | — |
| 2021 | — | open | 0.3% | — | — | -8.6% | — | — | 5.7% | — | 1.9% | open |
| 2022 | -5.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | — | — | 3.0% | — | 1.1% | 3.9% | 1.0% | -7.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | -2.1% | — | -0.3% | 4.8% | — | 4.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 12.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6.5% | -1.5% | 8.3% | — | — |
Latest trades
29 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2025 | long | 3830.4859 | 4151.4595 | Win |
| 23 Sept 2025 | long | 4199.9298 | 4141.3316 | Loss |
| 2 Aug 2025 | long | 3488.9076 | 3720.2458 | Win |
| 29 Jan 2025 | long | 3078.3355 | 3246.7305 | Win |
| 10 Jan 2025 | long | 3219.8438 | 3450.8197 | Win |
| 20 Dec 2024 | long | 3417.6934 | 3421.8455 | Win |
| 25 Jun 2024 | long | 3353.4105 | 3449.7499 | Win |
| 12 Jun 2024 | long | 3498.0295 | 3568.0363 | Win |
| 14 Apr 2024 | long | 3007.6114 | 3155.1588 | Win |
| 17 Mar 2024 | long | 3523.7946 | 3515.8267 | Loss |
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