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Free viewBacktest the Connors RSI(2) strategy on ETHUSDT
On the daily chart of Ethereum it buys when close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5. No stop loss, a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open.
5 notes about this test
- Short trades (the mirror rules below the 200-day average) cannot be executed on Spot, so only the long side is tested.
- The published rules use NO stop loss, so R-based statistics are undefined and the position size is a fixed notional, not risk to a stop.
- Connors published this for US equities and ETFs; this test runs on the crypto pair you named.
- Connors reports RSI(2) thresholds of 10, 5 and 2; the book's core table uses 5, which is what is tested.
- 30 trades: the most these rules produce in 7.5 years of 1d candles, short of the 100 a confident read wants.
Same rules on 4 markets101 trades · 68.3% win · — avg
| Market | Trades | Win | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT | 30 | 66.7% | — |
| BTCUSDT | 29 | 75.9% | — |
| SOLUSDT | 18 | 72.2% | — |
| BNBUSDT | 24 | 58.3% | — |
| All · 1d | 101 | 68.3% | — |
Market
Timeframe
Account
History
Requested 1996-10-17 → 2026-10-18 · traded from 2019-04-09 (warm-up 600 bars)
- This report was produced before RSI, ATR and ADX were warmed up for Wilder smoothing; its RSI rules started trading on a shorter warm-up, so the first signals and the tested window's start may differ. Re-run to get corrected results.
Verdict
PROMISINGwin rate · 30 trades
- Ended above the starting budget+56.3% · 1.501%
- Win rate 50% or above66.7%
- More than 50 trades30 trades
- Verdict rules v9
- Trades
- 30
- Timeframe
- 1D
- Tested over
- 2749 days
- Time in market
- 5.3%
high win rate · 30 trades, limited sample
What to watch
- Could not be checked with doubled costs
- Could not be checked on unseen data (not run)
What the data supports
Months in profit
69% of months closed up
18 of 26 months in the tested window
Best month
+12.8%
2025-01 · 2 of 30 trades · best of 26 months
Made money after costs
profit factor 2.60
all 30 trades
Net return
+56.3%
all 30 trades
Proof
TradingView twin
BINANCE:ETHUSDT1DPosition sizeSlippage
- Position size TradingView sizes each order on the signal candle's close, so sizes differ slightly from the backtest.
- Slippage TradingView charges slippage as commission, so stop and market fills differ slightly.
Account balance
$10,000
Starting balance
$137,619
Buy & hold
- Balance
- Buy & hold
Trust scoreThe fixed factors behind the trust score, each with its own measurement.
C
Grade
PROMISING
Verdict
Strategy replay
- SMA 200
- RSI 2
- SMA 5
Entry
2,574.66
Buy · 8 Oct 2026 · 5 bars
Stop loss
None
Exits on its rule
Take profit
None
Exits on its rule
Result
-1.58%
Exit rule at 2,536.43 · 12 Oct 2026
Trace4 steps
Signal
candle close
2,574.14
7 Oct 2026
Filled
next open
2,574.66
8 Oct 2026
No stop
none
8 Oct 2026
Exit · Exit rule
2,536.94
12 Oct 2026
Monthly returns
Wins and losses
- Wins20
- Losses10
Your rules
Buys when
close > SMA(200) and RSI(2) < 5
Stop
None · no stop rule was given, none was invented
Target / exit
Rule exit · a close above SMA(5) closes the trade at the next open
Risk per trade
Position: 100% of equity (no stop, so risk cannot be defined)
- After an exit
- The next entry signal is read from the candle after the exit, not on the exit candle
- Not modelled
- Margin calls, liquidation and CFD overnight financing; perpetual funding is charged when the data carries it
Latest trades
30 closed trades
| Date | Direction | Entry price | Exit price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | long | 2574.6648 | 2536.4326 | Loss |
| 11 Oct 2025 | long | 3830.4859 | 4151.4595 | Win |
| 23 Sept 2025 | long | 4199.9298 | 4141.3316 | Loss |
| 2 Aug 2025 | long | 3488.9076 | 3720.2458 | Win |
| 29 Jan 2025 | long | 3078.3355 | 3246.7305 | Win |
| 10 Jan 2025 | long | 3219.8438 | 3450.8197 | Win |
| 20 Dec 2024 | long | 3417.6934 | 3421.8455 | Win |
| 25 Jun 2024 | long | 3353.4105 | 3449.7499 | Win |
| 12 Jun 2024 | long | 3498.0295 | 3568.0363 | Win |
| 14 Apr 2024 | long | 3007.6114 | 3155.1588 | Win |
Monthly heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — | — | — | open | 4.5% | 6.6% | -0.2% | 4.7% | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | — | — | 2.4% | — | — | — |
| 2021 | — | open | 0.3% | — | — | -8.6% | — | — | 5.7% | — | 1.9% | open |
| 2022 | -5.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | — | — | 3.0% | — | 1.1% | 3.9% | 1.0% | -7.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | -2.1% | — | -0.3% | 4.8% | — | 4.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 12.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6.5% | -1.5% | 8.3% | — | — |
| 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1.6% | — | — |
Advanced Analysis